OpenAI’s rapid scaling of ChatGPT to roughly 900 million weekly users, combined with frequent feature expansions such as new GPT-5.x variants, agentic workflows, and advanced thinking modes, drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 1–3 outage days. Recent 2026 patterns show 15–20 mostly minor incidents per month—elevated error rates, partial login or streaming disruptions, and feature-specific degradations—that typically last minutes to a few hours but register on the status page. Infrastructure investments have shortened major outage durations, yet the expanding surface area of models and services keeps baseline volatility elevated. September historically mirrors this cadence, with no immediate catalysts like large model launches or regulatory deadlines expected to shift the narrow distribution.