Kentucky's 5th congressional district remains one of the most Republican-leaning seats in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+32 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including an 81-17 Trump victory in 2024. Incumbent Hal Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary with 77 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for a 24th term against Democrat Ned Pillersdorf on November 3. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district's voter registration edge, historical turnout patterns, and lack of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A major scandal, health event affecting the 88-year-old incumbent, or unprecedented national swing would be required to meaningfully shift the implied probability before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourKY-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
KY-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$30,258 Vol.
$30,258 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
95%
Parti démocrate
6%
$30,258 Vol.
$30,258 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$19,432 Vol.
95%
Parti démocrate
$10,826 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 5th congressional district remains one of the most Republican-leaning seats in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+32 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including an 81-17 Trump victory in 2024. Incumbent Hal Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary with 77 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for a 24th term against Democrat Ned Pillersdorf on November 3. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district's voter registration edge, historical turnout patterns, and lack of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A major scandal, health event affecting the 88-year-old incumbent, or unprecedented national swing would be required to meaningfully shift the implied probability before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$30,258Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 5th congressional district remains one of the most Republican-leaning seats in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+32 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including an 81-17 Trump victory in 2024. Incumbent Hal Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary with 77 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for a 24th term against Democrat Ned Pillersdorf on November 3. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district's voter registration edge, historical turnout patterns, and lack of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A major scandal, health event affecting the 88-year-old incumbent, or unprecedented national swing would be required to meaningfully shift the implied probability before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,258Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 5th congressional district remains one of the most Republican-leaning seats in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+32 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including an 81-17 Trump victory in 2024. Incumbent Hal Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary with 77 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for a 24th term against Democrat Ned Pillersdorf on November 3. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district's voter registration edge, historical turnout patterns, and lack of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A major scandal, health event affecting the 88-year-old incumbent, or unprecedented national swing would be required to meaningfully shift the implied probability before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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