Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and European centers points to a maximum temperature of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by moderating southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and light winds following showers on the 17th. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward those two outcomes, as traders incorporate official forecasts showing values near or slightly above the early-September average while ruling out extremes due to the advancing autumnal cooling trend. Historical September maxima in Warsaw typically range 16–20°C, but recent above-normal readings earlier in the month have kept 23°C in play at lower probability. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure shifts ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 18 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 18 septembre ?
22°C 51%
21°C 37%
23°C 13%
20°C 3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 sept. 2026
15°C ou moins
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
37%
22°C
51%
23°C
13%
24°C
<1%
25°C ou plus
1%
22°C 51%
21°C 37%
23°C 13%
20°C 3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 sept. 2026
15°C ou moins
$1,243 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$133 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$538 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$367 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$365 Vol.
3%
21°C
$1,791 Vol.
37%
22°C
$2,745 Vol.
51%
23°C
$1,730 Vol.
13%
24°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
25°C ou plus
$205 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and European centers points to a maximum temperature of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by moderating southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and light winds following showers on the 17th. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward those two outcomes, as traders incorporate official forecasts showing values near or slightly above the early-September average while ruling out extremes due to the advancing autumnal cooling trend. Historical September maxima in Warsaw typically range 16–20°C, but recent above-normal readings earlier in the month have kept 23°C in play at lower probability. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure shifts ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,568Date de fin
18 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and European centers points to a maximum temperature of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by moderating southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and light winds following showers on the 17th. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward those two outcomes, as traders incorporate official forecasts showing values near or slightly above the early-September average while ruling out extremes due to the advancing autumnal cooling trend. Historical September maxima in Warsaw typically range 16–20°C, but recent above-normal readings earlier in the month have kept 23°C in play at lower probability. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure shifts ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,568Date de fin
18 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and European centers points to a maximum temperature of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by moderating southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and light winds following showers on the 17th. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward those two outcomes, as traders incorporate official forecasts showing values near or slightly above the early-September average while ruling out extremes due to the advancing autumnal cooling trend. Historical September maxima in Warsaw typically range 16–20°C, but recent above-normal readings earlier in the month have kept 23°C in play at lower probability. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure shifts ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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