David Harbour leads the market at 70% implied probability for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, driven by his central performance as Floyd Smernitch in the critically acclaimed HBO Max limited series “DTF St. Louis,” which earned 13 Emmy nominations including for Outstanding Limited Series. The darkly comedic limited series, which premiered in March 2026 to strong reviews and a Gotham Award win, has built significant industry momentum through its ensemble campaign and Harbour’s prior Emmy recognition for “Stranger Things.” Charles Melton’s supporting turn in Netflix’s “Beef” Season 2 sits second at 23%, reflecting solid but narrower precursor support compared with “DTF St. Louis.” With the September 14 ceremony imminent, final-round voting will test whether Harbour’s frontrunner status holds against potential vote-splitting among his castmates or late momentum for other nominees.