**Copper cable under specific HTSUS line 8544.49.3040 faces Section 232 national security tariffs only if added through the rolling inclusion process for derivatives established in the April and June 2026 proclamations.** Tariffs already cover many copper semi-finished products and intensive derivatives at 50% or 25% on full customs value following the 2025 investigation and subsequent adjustments, but this particular insulated conductor line requires explicit addition. A Bureau of Industry and Security proposal on August 6, 2026, listed certain electric conductor cables among 14 potential new derivatives for inclusion, creating a procedural pathway without immediate effect. The June 1, 2026 proclamation refined rates, added limited relief categories, lowered U.S.-content thresholds to 85%, and extended the overall framework through December 31, 2027, while preserving authority for Commerce and USTR to expand scope on a rolling basis. Trader-implied probabilities remain modest—around 12% by end-2026 and near 39% by end-2027—reflecting the multi-step administrative process, potential for targeted or conditional application, and absence of a signed operative instrument targeting this exact statistical line. Resolution depends solely on official U.S. government action imposing a qualifying duty, quota, or restriction effective by the market date. Key variables include the pace of any follow-up determinations, industry input on the August proposal, and broader trade policy priorities that could accelerate or delay expansions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$15,247 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre 2026
39%
31 décembre 2027
47%
$15,247 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$7,483 Vol.
39%
31 décembre 2027
$7,764 Vol.
47%
HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.
A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.
A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.
Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.
Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.**Copper cable under specific HTSUS line 8544.49.3040 faces Section 232 national security tariffs only if added through the rolling inclusion process for derivatives established in the April and June 2026 proclamations.**
Tariffs already cover many copper semi-finished products and intensive derivatives at 50% or 25% on full customs value following the 2025 investigation and subsequent adjustments, but this particular insulated conductor line requires explicit addition. A Bureau of Industry and Security proposal on August 6, 2026, listed certain electric conductor cables among 14 potential new derivatives for inclusion, creating a procedural pathway without immediate effect.
The June 1, 2026 proclamation refined rates, added limited relief categories, lowered U.S.-content thresholds to 85%, and extended the overall framework through December 31, 2027, while preserving authority for Commerce and USTR to expand scope on a rolling basis. Trader-implied probabilities remain modest—around 12% by end-2026 and near 39% by end-2027—reflecting the multi-step administrative process, potential for targeted or conditional application, and absence of a signed operative instrument targeting this exact statistical line.
Resolution depends solely on official U.S. government action imposing a qualifying duty, quota, or restriction effective by the market date. Key variables include the pace of any follow-up determinations, industry input on the August proposal, and broader trade policy priorities that could accelerate or delay expansions.
HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.
A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.
A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.
Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.
Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.
A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.
A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.
Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.
Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Marché ouvert : Jul 22, 2026, 10:57 AM ET
Volume
$15,247Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Jul 22, 2026, 10:57 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.
A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.
A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.
Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.
Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.**Copper cable under specific HTSUS line 8544.49.3040 faces Section 232 national security tariffs only if added through the rolling inclusion process for derivatives established in the April and June 2026 proclamations.**
Tariffs already cover many copper semi-finished products and intensive derivatives at 50% or 25% on full customs value following the 2025 investigation and subsequent adjustments, but this particular insulated conductor line requires explicit addition. A Bureau of Industry and Security proposal on August 6, 2026, listed certain electric conductor cables among 14 potential new derivatives for inclusion, creating a procedural pathway without immediate effect.
The June 1, 2026 proclamation refined rates, added limited relief categories, lowered U.S.-content thresholds to 85%, and extended the overall framework through December 31, 2027, while preserving authority for Commerce and USTR to expand scope on a rolling basis. Trader-implied probabilities remain modest—around 12% by end-2026 and near 39% by end-2027—reflecting the multi-step administrative process, potential for targeted or conditional application, and absence of a signed operative instrument targeting this exact statistical line.
Resolution depends solely on official U.S. government action imposing a qualifying duty, quota, or restriction effective by the market date. Key variables include the pace of any follow-up determinations, industry input on the August proposal, and broader trade policy priorities that could accelerate or delay expansions.
HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.
A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.
A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.
Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.
Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.
A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.
A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.
Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.
Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Volume
$15,247Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Jul 22, 2026, 10:57 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Copper cable under specific HTSUS line 8544.49.3040 faces Section 232 national security tariffs only if added through the rolling inclusion process for derivatives established in the April and June 2026 proclamations.** Tariffs already cover many copper semi-finished products and intensive derivatives at 50% or 25% on full customs value following the 2025 investigation and subsequent adjustments, but this particular insulated conductor line requires explicit addition. A Bureau of Industry and Security proposal on August 6, 2026, listed certain electric conductor cables among 14 potential new derivatives for inclusion, creating a procedural pathway without immediate effect. The June 1, 2026 proclamation refined rates, added limited relief categories, lowered U.S.-content thresholds to 85%, and extended the overall framework through December 31, 2027, while preserving authority for Commerce and USTR to expand scope on a rolling basis. Trader-implied probabilities remain modest—around 12% by end-2026 and near 39% by end-2027—reflecting the multi-step administrative process, potential for targeted or conditional application, and absence of a signed operative instrument targeting this exact statistical line. Resolution depends solely on official U.S. government action imposing a qualifying duty, quota, or restriction effective by the market date. Key variables include the pace of any follow-up determinations, industry input on the August proposal, and broader trade policy priorities that could accelerate or delay expansions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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