**Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 51st congressional district.** The June 2 top-two primary advanced only these two candidates after Jacobs secured roughly 58% and Cabrera 37%. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Jacobs’s 60.7% win in 2024 and the district’s voter registration edge favoring Democrats. Trader prices cluster around 40–44% for Democrat victory margins in the 25–35% range and near 40.5% for a Republican win, reflecting consensus on a comfortable but not landslide Democratic hold amid typical midterm variability, incumbency advantages, and limited recent campaign developments that would alter the expected spread. The general election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events or shifts in polling keep the margin bands competitive in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 15-20 % 43%
Démocrate 0-10 % 42%
Démocrate 25-30 % 42%
Démocrate 10-15 % 42%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate 40 %+
41%
Démocrate 35-40 %
41%
Démocrate 30-35 %
41%
Démocrate 25-30 %
42%
Démocrate 20-25 %
39%
Démocrate 15-20 %
43%
Démocrate 10-15 %
42%
Démocrate 0-10 %
42%
Victoire d'un républicain
41%
Démocrate 15-20 % 43%
Démocrate 0-10 % 42%
Démocrate 25-30 % 42%
Démocrate 10-15 % 42%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate 40 %+
$0 Vol.
41%
Démocrate 35-40 %
$0 Vol.
41%
Démocrate 30-35 %
$0 Vol.
41%
Démocrate 25-30 %
$0 Vol.
42%
Démocrate 20-25 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Démocrate 15-20 %
$0 Vol.
43%
Démocrate 10-15 %
$0 Vol.
42%
Démocrate 0-10 %
$0 Vol.
42%
Victoire d'un républicain
$0 Vol.
41%
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 51st congressional district.** The June 2 top-two primary advanced only these two candidates after Jacobs secured roughly 58% and Cabrera 37%. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Jacobs’s 60.7% win in 2024 and the district’s voter registration edge favoring Democrats.
Trader prices cluster around 40–44% for Democrat victory margins in the 25–35% range and near 40.5% for a Republican win, reflecting consensus on a comfortable but not landslide Democratic hold amid typical midterm variability, incumbency advantages, and limited recent campaign developments that would alter the expected spread. The general election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events or shifts in polling keep the margin bands competitive in market pricing.
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 51st congressional district.** The June 2 top-two primary advanced only these two candidates after Jacobs secured roughly 58% and Cabrera 37%. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Jacobs’s 60.7% win in 2024 and the district’s voter registration edge favoring Democrats.
Trader prices cluster around 40–44% for Democrat victory margins in the 25–35% range and near 40.5% for a Republican win, reflecting consensus on a comfortable but not landslide Democratic hold amid typical midterm variability, incumbency advantages, and limited recent campaign developments that would alter the expected spread. The general election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events or shifts in polling keep the margin bands competitive in market pricing.
The 2026 CA-51 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-51 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs faces Republican challenger Ricardo Cabrera in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 51st congressional district.** The June 2 top-two primary advanced only these two candidates after Jacobs secured roughly 58% and Cabrera 37%. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Jacobs’s 60.7% win in 2024 and the district’s voter registration edge favoring Democrats. Trader prices cluster around 40–44% for Democrat victory margins in the 25–35% range and near 40.5% for a Republican win, reflecting consensus on a comfortable but not landslide Democratic hold amid typical midterm variability, incumbency advantages, and limited recent campaign developments that would alter the expected spread. The general election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events or shifts in polling keep the margin bands competitive in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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