**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate has stabilized near 1,490–1,500 as of mid-August 2026 after rising gradually through a managed crawling-band regime introduced in January.** Under President Milei, the band now widens monthly in line with lagged inflation (recently around 2%), while the central bank prioritizes daily FX purchases to rebuild reserves and support external debt service. With annual inflation having fallen sharply to the low-30% range and fiscal balance maintained, the market-implied path of roughly 1–2% monthly depreciation through year-end keeps the <1,600 bracket the clear leader at 43% probability, followed by the 1,600–1,700 range at 32.5%. Traders assign low weight to sharper moves because reserve-accumulation targets and the absence of acute external shocks reinforce the gradual-adjustment framework, though proximity to the 2027 elections and any slippage in reserve or inflation progress remain the key swing factors for the final months of 2026.