**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate trades near 1,495 in mid-August 2026 under a flexible crawling-band regime that widens monthly in line with lagged inflation.** This framework, implemented in early 2026 after the prior 1% monthly peg, supports gradual peso depreciation to rebuild reserves, service external debt, and maintain competitiveness while inflation has fallen sharply from prior peaks. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1,700–1,800 by year-end, reflecting ongoing real adjustment and reserve-accumulation needs ahead of debt obligations. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 1,600+ embeds expectations that the band’s expansion and modest residual inflation will drive further weakening over the next four-plus months, tempered by reserve gains and fiscal discipline that limit abrupt moves. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints and BCRA foreign-exchange purchases, which will shape whether the rate stays within the current band or accelerates toward higher brackets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1600,00+ 59%
1500,00–1549,99 15.0%
1550,00–1599,99 10.3%
1450,00–1499,99 6.7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
<1250,00
4%
1250,00–1299,99
<1%
1300,00–1349,99
<1%
1350,00–1399,99
<1%
1400,00–1449,99
4%
1450,00–1499,99
9%
1500,00–1549,99
15%
1550,00–1599,99
10%
1600,00+
63%
1600,00+ 59%
1500,00–1549,99 15.0%
1550,00–1599,99 10.3%
1450,00–1499,99 6.7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
<1250,00
$536 Vol.
4%
1250,00–1299,99
$790 Vol.
<1%
1300,00–1349,99
$677 Vol.
<1%
1350,00–1399,99
$736 Vol.
<1%
1400,00–1449,99
$1,239 Vol.
4%
1450,00–1499,99
$1,264 Vol.
9%
1500,00–1549,99
$1,223 Vol.
15%
1550,00–1599,99
$694 Vol.
10%
1600,00+
$1,902 Vol.
63%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate trades near 1,495 in mid-August 2026 under a flexible crawling-band regime that widens monthly in line with lagged inflation.** This framework, implemented in early 2026 after the prior 1% monthly peg, supports gradual peso depreciation to rebuild reserves, service external debt, and maintain competitiveness while inflation has fallen sharply from prior peaks. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1,700–1,800 by year-end, reflecting ongoing real adjustment and reserve-accumulation needs ahead of debt obligations. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 1,600+ embeds expectations that the band’s expansion and modest residual inflation will drive further weakening over the next four-plus months, tempered by reserve gains and fiscal discipline that limit abrupt moves. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints and BCRA foreign-exchange purchases, which will shape whether the rate stays within the current band or accelerates toward higher brackets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,062Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate trades near 1,495 in mid-August 2026 under a flexible crawling-band regime that widens monthly in line with lagged inflation.** This framework, implemented in early 2026 after the prior 1% monthly peg, supports gradual peso depreciation to rebuild reserves, service external debt, and maintain competitiveness while inflation has fallen sharply from prior peaks. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1,700–1,800 by year-end, reflecting ongoing real adjustment and reserve-accumulation needs ahead of debt obligations. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 1,600+ embeds expectations that the band’s expansion and modest residual inflation will drive further weakening over the next four-plus months, tempered by reserve gains and fiscal discipline that limit abrupt moves. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints and BCRA foreign-exchange purchases, which will shape whether the rate stays within the current band or accelerates toward higher brackets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,062Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate trades near 1,495 in mid-August 2026 under a flexible crawling-band regime that widens monthly in line with lagged inflation.** This framework, implemented in early 2026 after the prior 1% monthly peg, supports gradual peso depreciation to rebuild reserves, service external debt, and maintain competitiveness while inflation has fallen sharply from prior peaks. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1,700–1,800 by year-end, reflecting ongoing real adjustment and reserve-accumulation needs ahead of debt obligations. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 1,600+ embeds expectations that the band’s expansion and modest residual inflation will drive further weakening over the next four-plus months, tempered by reserve gains and fiscal discipline that limit abrupt moves. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints and BCRA foreign-exchange purchases, which will shape whether the rate stays within the current band or accelerates toward higher brackets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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