**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 72% implied probability stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and political barriers that make large-scale CXMT DRAM purchases unlikely before year-end.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for clearance to source memory amid AI-driven shortages that forced product price hikes, and it has tested CXMT chips for China-bound devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military company list, triggering reputational risks and potential future restrictions, while U.S. lawmakers have publicly opposed any partnership. More critically, CXMT operates at 95%+ utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to meet surging domestic demand, leaving minimal room for Apple’s projected needs. Recent reporting indicates the Chinese firm prioritizes local buyers over foreign volume deals, limiting any near-term supply shift despite ongoing talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$19,369 Vol.
$19,369 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
29% chance
$19,369 Vol.
$19,369 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 72% implied probability stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and political barriers that make large-scale CXMT DRAM purchases unlikely before year-end.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for clearance to source memory amid AI-driven shortages that forced product price hikes, and it has tested CXMT chips for China-bound devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military company list, triggering reputational risks and potential future restrictions, while U.S. lawmakers have publicly opposed any partnership. More critically, CXMT operates at 95%+ utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to meet surging domestic demand, leaving minimal room for Apple’s projected needs. Recent reporting indicates the Chinese firm prioritizes local buyers over foreign volume deals, limiting any near-term supply shift despite ongoing talks.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$19,369End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 72% implied probability stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and political barriers that make large-scale CXMT DRAM purchases unlikely before year-end.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for clearance to source memory amid AI-driven shortages that forced product price hikes, and it has tested CXMT chips for China-bound devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military company list, triggering reputational risks and potential future restrictions, while U.S. lawmakers have publicly opposed any partnership. More critically, CXMT operates at 95%+ utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to meet surging domestic demand, leaving minimal room for Apple’s projected needs. Recent reporting indicates the Chinese firm prioritizes local buyers over foreign volume deals, limiting any near-term supply shift despite ongoing talks.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,369End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 72% implied probability stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and political barriers that make large-scale CXMT DRAM purchases unlikely before year-end.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for clearance to source memory amid AI-driven shortages that forced product price hikes, and it has tested CXMT chips for China-bound devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military company list, triggering reputational risks and potential future restrictions, while U.S. lawmakers have publicly opposed any partnership. More critically, CXMT operates at 95%+ utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to meet surging domestic demand, leaving minimal room for Apple’s projected needs. Recent reporting indicates the Chinese firm prioritizes local buyers over foreign volume deals, limiting any near-term supply shift despite ongoing talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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