Apple's ongoing efforts to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) face significant barriers from US regulatory scrutiny and political opposition, supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. AI-driven demand has tightened global supply and driven price surges, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances against Entity List placement while testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H blacklist, prioritizes domestic customers like Huawei amid its own capacity constraints, and offers no meaningful discounts, limiting any potential deal to marginal or China-specific volumes. Key catalysts ahead include White House decisions on exemptions and iPhone 18 production timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$19,369 Vol.
$19,369 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
29% chance
$19,369 Vol.
$19,369 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing efforts to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) face significant barriers from US regulatory scrutiny and political opposition, supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. AI-driven demand has tightened global supply and driven price surges, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances against Entity List placement while testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H blacklist, prioritizes domestic customers like Huawei amid its own capacity constraints, and offers no meaningful discounts, limiting any potential deal to marginal or China-specific volumes. Key catalysts ahead include White House decisions on exemptions and iPhone 18 production timelines.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$19,369End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing efforts to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) face significant barriers from US regulatory scrutiny and political opposition, supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. AI-driven demand has tightened global supply and driven price surges, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances against Entity List placement while testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H blacklist, prioritizes domestic customers like Huawei amid its own capacity constraints, and offers no meaningful discounts, limiting any potential deal to marginal or China-specific volumes. Key catalysts ahead include White House decisions on exemptions and iPhone 18 production timelines.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,369End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's ongoing efforts to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) face significant barriers from US regulatory scrutiny and political opposition, supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. AI-driven demand has tightened global supply and driven price surges, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances against Entity List placement while testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H blacklist, prioritizes domestic customers like Huawei amid its own capacity constraints, and offers no meaningful discounts, limiting any potential deal to marginal or China-specific volumes. Key catalysts ahead include White House decisions on exemptions and iPhone 18 production timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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