**Elevated housing inventory and ongoing price concessions continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent Unlock MLS data showed the metro median sale price at $435,000 in July 2026, up modestly year-over-year but still well below the 2022 peak near $580,000, while Realtor.com listing medians eased to $450,000 in August. Persistent supply pressure—reflected in 4.7–5.2 months of inventory, 35–55% of listings with price cuts, and 60–70+ days on market—has sustained downward momentum despite solid job growth and net migration. Zillow’s typical home value index near $424,000 in July further supports the market-implied odds, with limited near-term catalysts likely to reverse the correction before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$446K 83%
$454K - $462K 11.1%
$470K - $478K 1.2%
$462K - $470K <1%
$92,909 Vol.
$92,909 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
83%
$446K - $454K
1%
$454K - $462K
11%
$462K - $470K
1%
$470K - $478K
1%
$478K - $486K
1%
$486K+
1%
<$446K 83%
$454K - $462K 11.1%
$470K - $478K 1.2%
$462K - $470K <1%
$92,909 Vol.
$92,909 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
$34,562 Vol.
83%
$446K - $454K
$16,670 Vol.
1%
$454K - $462K
$7,668 Vol.
11%
$462K - $470K
$6,093 Vol.
1%
$470K - $478K
$12,821 Vol.
1%
$478K - $486K
$5,189 Vol.
1%
$486K+
$9,907 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)**Elevated housing inventory and ongoing price concessions continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent Unlock MLS data showed the metro median sale price at $435,000 in July 2026, up modestly year-over-year but still well below the 2022 peak near $580,000, while Realtor.com listing medians eased to $450,000 in August. Persistent supply pressure—reflected in 4.7–5.2 months of inventory, 35–55% of listings with price cuts, and 60–70+ days on market—has sustained downward momentum despite solid job growth and net migration. Zillow’s typical home value index near $424,000 in July further supports the market-implied odds, with limited near-term catalysts likely to reverse the correction before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$92,909End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)**Elevated housing inventory and ongoing price concessions continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent Unlock MLS data showed the metro median sale price at $435,000 in July 2026, up modestly year-over-year but still well below the 2022 peak near $580,000, while Realtor.com listing medians eased to $450,000 in August. Persistent supply pressure—reflected in 4.7–5.2 months of inventory, 35–55% of listings with price cuts, and 60–70+ days on market—has sustained downward momentum despite solid job growth and net migration. Zillow’s typical home value index near $424,000 in July further supports the market-implied odds, with limited near-term catalysts likely to reverse the correction before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Volume
$92,909End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated housing inventory and ongoing price concessions continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent Unlock MLS data showed the metro median sale price at $435,000 in July 2026, up modestly year-over-year but still well below the 2022 peak near $580,000, while Realtor.com listing medians eased to $450,000 in August. Persistent supply pressure—reflected in 4.7–5.2 months of inventory, 35–55% of listings with price cuts, and 60–70+ days on market—has sustained downward momentum despite solid job growth and net migration. Zillow’s typical home value index near $424,000 in July further supports the market-implied odds, with limited near-term catalysts likely to reverse the correction before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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