The Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78 percent implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling leads of 52–57 to 43–48 across recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson has held or extended its advantage through emphasis on cost-of-living, justice, and housing issues. One Nation’s elevated primary support (low-to-mid 20s) fragments the vote but flows predominantly to the Coalition on preferences, reducing prospects for a hung parliament or minor-party influence. The November 28 election timing and 12-year Labor incumbency provide additional structural tailwinds for a change of government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.2%
Greens <1%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
78%
Labor
20%
One Nation
2%
Greens
1%
Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.2%
Greens <1%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,390 Vol.
78%
Labor
$1,749 Vol.
20%
One Nation
$2,275 Vol.
2%
Greens
$212 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).The Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78 percent implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling leads of 52–57 to 43–48 across recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson has held or extended its advantage through emphasis on cost-of-living, justice, and housing issues. One Nation’s elevated primary support (low-to-mid 20s) fragments the vote but flows predominantly to the Coalition on preferences, reducing prospects for a hung parliament or minor-party influence. The November 28 election timing and 12-year Labor incumbency provide additional structural tailwinds for a change of government.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$10,625End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).The Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78 percent implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling leads of 52–57 to 43–48 across recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson has held or extended its advantage through emphasis on cost-of-living, justice, and housing issues. One Nation’s elevated primary support (low-to-mid 20s) fragments the vote but flows predominantly to the Coalition on preferences, reducing prospects for a hung parliament or minor-party influence. The November 28 election timing and 12-year Labor incumbency provide additional structural tailwinds for a change of government.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$10,625End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78 percent implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling leads of 52–57 to 43–48 across recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Newspoll. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson has held or extended its advantage through emphasis on cost-of-living, justice, and housing issues. One Nation’s elevated primary support (low-to-mid 20s) fragments the vote but flows predominantly to the Coalition on preferences, reducing prospects for a hung parliament or minor-party influence. The November 28 election timing and 12-year Labor incumbency provide additional structural tailwinds for a change of government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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