The U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and recognized Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, establishing diplomatic ties, securing control over oil revenues, and advancing security and reconstruction cooperation through talks involving Chavista figures and select opposition representatives such as Dinorah Figuera. The Trump administration has consistently sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, who remain in exile, while prioritizing institutional stability, earthquake recovery after the June 2026 events, and gradual reforms over immediate leadership changes. Current U.S.-backed negotiations exclude Machado’s faction, and senior officials have described any rapid transition to her as premature. This sustained policy alignment, rather than formal endorsement of the 2024 opposition claim, underpins the 96.5% “No” consensus. A reversal by year-end would require an abrupt policy shift, verified progress toward elections under her leadership, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs not signaled in recent developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$179,243 Vol.
$179,243 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$179,243 Vol.
$179,243 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and recognized Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, establishing diplomatic ties, securing control over oil revenues, and advancing security and reconstruction cooperation through talks involving Chavista figures and select opposition representatives such as Dinorah Figuera. The Trump administration has consistently sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, who remain in exile, while prioritizing institutional stability, earthquake recovery after the June 2026 events, and gradual reforms over immediate leadership changes. Current U.S.-backed negotiations exclude Machado’s faction, and senior officials have described any rapid transition to her as premature. This sustained policy alignment, rather than formal endorsement of the 2024 opposition claim, underpins the 96.5% “No” consensus. A reversal by year-end would require an abrupt policy shift, verified progress toward elections under her leadership, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs not signaled in recent developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,243End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and recognized Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, establishing diplomatic ties, securing control over oil revenues, and advancing security and reconstruction cooperation through talks involving Chavista figures and select opposition representatives such as Dinorah Figuera. The Trump administration has consistently sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, who remain in exile, while prioritizing institutional stability, earthquake recovery after the June 2026 events, and gradual reforms over immediate leadership changes. Current U.S.-backed negotiations exclude Machado’s faction, and senior officials have described any rapid transition to her as premature. This sustained policy alignment, rather than formal endorsement of the 2024 opposition claim, underpins the 96.5% “No” consensus. A reversal by year-end would require an abrupt policy shift, verified progress toward elections under her leadership, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs not signaled in recent developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,243End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and recognized Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, establishing diplomatic ties, securing control over oil revenues, and advancing security and reconstruction cooperation through talks involving Chavista figures and select opposition representatives such as Dinorah Figuera. The Trump administration has consistently sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, who remain in exile, while prioritizing institutional stability, earthquake recovery after the June 2026 events, and gradual reforms over immediate leadership changes. Current U.S.-backed negotiations exclude Machado’s faction, and senior officials have described any rapid transition to her as premature. This sustained policy alignment, rather than formal endorsement of the 2024 opposition claim, underpins the 96.5% “No” consensus. A reversal by year-end would require an abrupt policy shift, verified progress toward elections under her leadership, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs not signaled in recent developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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