Market-implied odds for the May 2026 U.S. CPI annual rate show a tight contest between 4.2% at 47.5% and 4.3% at 40%, reflecting trader consensus on an acceleration from April’s 3.8% year-over-year print. Elevated energy prices, including a sharp rise in gasoline, are the primary near-term catalyst expected to drive a 0.5% monthly increase and push the headline rate to around 4.2%. Professional forecasts from institutions such as RBC and Deutsche Bank align closely with this path, while core measures are projected to rise more modestly near 2.9%. The June 12 release will resolve the market, with any deviation in energy pass-through or shelter components serving as key swing factors in the final reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4.2% 48%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4 % 8%
4.1% 7.6%
$520,346 Vol.
$520,346 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
8%
4.2%
48%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4 %
8%
4.2% 48%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4 % 8%
4.1% 7.6%
$520,346 Vol.
$520,346 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
8%
4.2%
48%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4 %
8%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the May 2026 U.S. CPI annual rate show a tight contest between 4.2% at 47.5% and 4.3% at 40%, reflecting trader consensus on an acceleration from April’s 3.8% year-over-year print. Elevated energy prices, including a sharp rise in gasoline, are the primary near-term catalyst expected to drive a 0.5% monthly increase and push the headline rate to around 4.2%. Professional forecasts from institutions such as RBC and Deutsche Bank align closely with this path, while core measures are projected to rise more modestly near 2.9%. The June 12 release will resolve the market, with any deviation in energy pass-through or shelter components serving as key swing factors in the final reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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