**Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 after the latter’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war.** The Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba unanimously, preserving clerical-IRGC continuity amid heavy leadership losses and active conflict. As of August 2026 the regime has consolidated around this dynastic transition despite Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and scattered reports questioning his health or capacity. Trader sentiment on the timing of any subsequent change therefore reflects expectations of near-term stability under wartime pressures, sanctions, and IRGC influence, with probabilities rising for mid-2027 or later dates as the system absorbs shocks and navigates diplomatic or military developments. No scheduled electoral or constitutional deadlines currently force an earlier transition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,995,638 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
10%
December 31
16%
June 30, 2027
25%
$23,995,638 Vol.
August 31
$1,444,701 Vol.
1%
September 30
$477,348 Vol.
3%
October 31
$25,718 Vol.
7%
November 30
$18,238 Vol.
10%
December 31
$4,093,937 Vol.
16%
June 30, 2027
$247,978 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 after the latter’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war.** The Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba unanimously, preserving clerical-IRGC continuity amid heavy leadership losses and active conflict. As of August 2026 the regime has consolidated around this dynastic transition despite Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and scattered reports questioning his health or capacity. Trader sentiment on the timing of any subsequent change therefore reflects expectations of near-term stability under wartime pressures, sanctions, and IRGC influence, with probabilities rising for mid-2027 or later dates as the system absorbs shocks and navigates diplomatic or military developments. No scheduled electoral or constitutional deadlines currently force an earlier transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$23,995,638End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 after the latter’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war.** The Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba unanimously, preserving clerical-IRGC continuity amid heavy leadership losses and active conflict. As of August 2026 the regime has consolidated around this dynastic transition despite Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and scattered reports questioning his health or capacity. Trader sentiment on the timing of any subsequent change therefore reflects expectations of near-term stability under wartime pressures, sanctions, and IRGC influence, with probabilities rising for mid-2027 or later dates as the system absorbs shocks and navigates diplomatic or military developments. No scheduled electoral or constitutional deadlines currently force an earlier transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,995,638End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 after the latter’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war.** The Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba unanimously, preserving clerical-IRGC continuity amid heavy leadership losses and active conflict. As of August 2026 the regime has consolidated around this dynastic transition despite Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and scattered reports questioning his health or capacity. Trader sentiment on the timing of any subsequent change therefore reflects expectations of near-term stability under wartime pressures, sanctions, and IRGC influence, with probabilities rising for mid-2027 or later dates as the system absorbs shocks and navigates diplomatic or military developments. No scheduled electoral or constitutional deadlines currently force an earlier transition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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