**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and enforcement actions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the clear market consensus for the week of August 24.** Persistent Iranian routing requirements, U.S. blockade measures, and war-risk insurance premiums priced at multiples of 40 times normal levels continue to deter most operators, keeping detectable AIS traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms (around 85 daily transits historically). Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel crossings in the low single digits to low teens through mid-to-late August, with totals over recent seven-day periods in the 70-100 range when including limited northern-corridor and dark movements; several days recorded only 2-7 transits amid renewed enforcement and incidents such as the August 24 tanker strike off Yanbu and fresh U.S. sanctions announced the same day. Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that minimal activity persists—primarily Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on approved northern routes or U.S.-facilitated southern passages—yet remains far below recovery thresholds. Higher bins (50+) carry negligible probability because sustained escalation, blacklisting of non-compliant tankers, and uneconomic insurance costs show no signs of easing in the immediate term, while the sub-25 outcome remains possible only if enforcement tightens further. This skin-in-the-game pricing captures the dominant macro driver: Middle East chokepoint risk sustaining energy-market volatility and rerouting incentives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 78%
<25 18%
50-74 5%
100+ 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<25
18%
25-49
78%
50-74
5%
75-99
1%
100+
2%
25-49 78%
<25 18%
50-74 5%
100+ 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$2,697 Vol.
18%
25-49
$1,922 Vol.
78%
50-74
$480 Vol.
5%
75-99
$542 Vol.
1%
100+
$591 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and enforcement actions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the clear market consensus for the week of August 24.**
Persistent Iranian routing requirements, U.S. blockade measures, and war-risk insurance premiums priced at multiples of 40 times normal levels continue to deter most operators, keeping detectable AIS traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms (around 85 daily transits historically). Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel crossings in the low single digits to low teens through mid-to-late August, with totals over recent seven-day periods in the 70-100 range when including limited northern-corridor and dark movements; several days recorded only 2-7 transits amid renewed enforcement and incidents such as the August 24 tanker strike off Yanbu and fresh U.S. sanctions announced the same day.
Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that minimal activity persists—primarily Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on approved northern routes or U.S.-facilitated southern passages—yet remains far below recovery thresholds. Higher bins (50+) carry negligible probability because sustained escalation, blacklisting of non-compliant tankers, and uneconomic insurance costs show no signs of easing in the immediate term, while the sub-25 outcome remains possible only if enforcement tightens further. This skin-in-the-game pricing captures the dominant macro driver: Middle East chokepoint risk sustaining energy-market volatility and rerouting incentives.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$6,232End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and enforcement actions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the clear market consensus for the week of August 24.**
Persistent Iranian routing requirements, U.S. blockade measures, and war-risk insurance premiums priced at multiples of 40 times normal levels continue to deter most operators, keeping detectable AIS traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms (around 85 daily transits historically). Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel crossings in the low single digits to low teens through mid-to-late August, with totals over recent seven-day periods in the 70-100 range when including limited northern-corridor and dark movements; several days recorded only 2-7 transits amid renewed enforcement and incidents such as the August 24 tanker strike off Yanbu and fresh U.S. sanctions announced the same day.
Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that minimal activity persists—primarily Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on approved northern routes or U.S.-facilitated southern passages—yet remains far below recovery thresholds. Higher bins (50+) carry negligible probability because sustained escalation, blacklisting of non-compliant tankers, and uneconomic insurance costs show no signs of easing in the immediate term, while the sub-25 outcome remains possible only if enforcement tightens further. This skin-in-the-game pricing captures the dominant macro driver: Middle East chokepoint risk sustaining energy-market volatility and rerouting incentives.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$6,232End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and enforcement actions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the clear market consensus for the week of August 24.** Persistent Iranian routing requirements, U.S. blockade measures, and war-risk insurance premiums priced at multiples of 40 times normal levels continue to deter most operators, keeping detectable AIS traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms (around 85 daily transits historically). Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel crossings in the low single digits to low teens through mid-to-late August, with totals over recent seven-day periods in the 70-100 range when including limited northern-corridor and dark movements; several days recorded only 2-7 transits amid renewed enforcement and incidents such as the August 24 tanker strike off Yanbu and fresh U.S. sanctions announced the same day. Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that minimal activity persists—primarily Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on approved northern routes or U.S.-facilitated southern passages—yet remains far below recovery thresholds. Higher bins (50+) carry negligible probability because sustained escalation, blacklisting of non-compliant tankers, and uneconomic insurance costs show no signs of easing in the immediate term, while the sub-25 outcome remains possible only if enforcement tightens further. This skin-in-the-game pricing captures the dominant macro driver: Middle East chokepoint risk sustaining energy-market volatility and rerouting incentives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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