**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 200+ ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting recent AIS and maritime intelligence data showing weekly volumes in the 200–270 range amid suppressed but stable flows.** Recent MarineTraffic weekly snapshots indicate 269 crossings for Bab el-Mandeb (up modestly week-over-week), while JMIC rolling data for mid-August periods (such as 97 transits over 72 hours ending August 22) extrapolate to similar totals when aggregated. This aligns with broader August trends of roughly 25–40 vessels per day on average, driven by partial recovery in non-tanker and ballast movements despite persistent Houthi-related risks and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Pre-2024 baselines of 60–80 daily transits (420–560 weekly) have been structurally reduced by conflict, yet headline counts have held above the 200 threshold without sharp further declines. Market-implied odds price in this continuity, treating the aggregated trader view as a capital-backed assessment of ongoing chokepoint activity rather than a forecast. Potential disruptive scenarios include a sharp escalation in attacks or sanctions that triggers widespread additional diversions, or a sudden drop in AIS compliance that undercounts visible transits—though recent patterns show resilience in total vessel movements even as laden commercial volumes remain constrained.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
200+ 100.0%
<160 <1%
160-179 <1%
180-199 <1%
$31,166 Vol.
$31,166 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200+
Yes
200+ 100.0%
<160 <1%
160-179 <1%
180-199 <1%
$31,166 Vol.
$31,166 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$7,534 Vol.
No
160-179
$4,858 Vol.
No
180-199
$6,725 Vol.
No
200+
$12,049 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 200+ ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting recent AIS and maritime intelligence data showing weekly volumes in the 200–270 range amid suppressed but stable flows.**
Recent MarineTraffic weekly snapshots indicate 269 crossings for Bab el-Mandeb (up modestly week-over-week), while JMIC rolling data for mid-August periods (such as 97 transits over 72 hours ending August 22) extrapolate to similar totals when aggregated. This aligns with broader August trends of roughly 25–40 vessels per day on average, driven by partial recovery in non-tanker and ballast movements despite persistent Houthi-related risks and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Pre-2024 baselines of 60–80 daily transits (420–560 weekly) have been structurally reduced by conflict, yet headline counts have held above the 200 threshold without sharp further declines.
Market-implied odds price in this continuity, treating the aggregated trader view as a capital-backed assessment of ongoing chokepoint activity rather than a forecast. Potential disruptive scenarios include a sharp escalation in attacks or sanctions that triggers widespread additional diversions, or a sudden drop in AIS compliance that undercounts visible transits—though recent patterns show resilience in total vessel movements even as laden commercial volumes remain constrained.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$31,166End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 200+ ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting recent AIS and maritime intelligence data showing weekly volumes in the 200–270 range amid suppressed but stable flows.**
Recent MarineTraffic weekly snapshots indicate 269 crossings for Bab el-Mandeb (up modestly week-over-week), while JMIC rolling data for mid-August periods (such as 97 transits over 72 hours ending August 22) extrapolate to similar totals when aggregated. This aligns with broader August trends of roughly 25–40 vessels per day on average, driven by partial recovery in non-tanker and ballast movements despite persistent Houthi-related risks and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Pre-2024 baselines of 60–80 daily transits (420–560 weekly) have been structurally reduced by conflict, yet headline counts have held above the 200 threshold without sharp further declines.
Market-implied odds price in this continuity, treating the aggregated trader view as a capital-backed assessment of ongoing chokepoint activity rather than a forecast. Potential disruptive scenarios include a sharp escalation in attacks or sanctions that triggers widespread additional diversions, or a sudden drop in AIS compliance that undercounts visible transits—though recent patterns show resilience in total vessel movements even as laden commercial volumes remain constrained.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$31,166End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 200+ ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting recent AIS and maritime intelligence data showing weekly volumes in the 200–270 range amid suppressed but stable flows.** Recent MarineTraffic weekly snapshots indicate 269 crossings for Bab el-Mandeb (up modestly week-over-week), while JMIC rolling data for mid-August periods (such as 97 transits over 72 hours ending August 22) extrapolate to similar totals when aggregated. This aligns with broader August trends of roughly 25–40 vessels per day on average, driven by partial recovery in non-tanker and ballast movements despite persistent Houthi-related risks and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Pre-2024 baselines of 60–80 daily transits (420–560 weekly) have been structurally reduced by conflict, yet headline counts have held above the 200 threshold without sharp further declines. Market-implied odds price in this continuity, treating the aggregated trader view as a capital-backed assessment of ongoing chokepoint activity rather than a forecast. Potential disruptive scenarios include a sharp escalation in attacks or sanctions that triggers widespread additional diversions, or a sudden drop in AIS compliance that undercounts visible transits—though recent patterns show resilience in total vessel movements even as laden commercial volumes remain constrained.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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