Recent Western U.S. heat waves, including triple-digit forecasts for early August 2026 across Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and parts of the northern plains, represent the main driver keeping the market tight. These conditions follow July's widespread record highs but remain concentrated in the West, where all-time marks at long-term stations are harder to break than daily records. Forecasters note variable ridge strength and potential cooling trends later in the month, which could limit total breaks to the 21-100 range or allow a surge above 100 if heat expands eastward. With only a few days elapsed and mixed long-range outlooks, traders see balanced odds across mid-tier buckets, hinging on whether persistent high pressure produces widespread new monthly or all-time peaks at dozens of stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
61-100 41%
0-20 40%
21-60 39%
151+ 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
40%
21-60
39%
61-100
41%
101-150
34%
151+
37%
61-100 41%
0-20 40%
21-60 39%
151+ 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$0 Vol.
40%
21-60
$0 Vol.
39%
61-100
$0 Vol.
41%
101-150
$0 Vol.
34%
151+
$0 Vol.
37%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Recent Western U.S. heat waves, including triple-digit forecasts for early August 2026 across Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and parts of the northern plains, represent the main driver keeping the market tight. These conditions follow July's widespread record highs but remain concentrated in the West, where all-time marks at long-term stations are harder to break than daily records. Forecasters note variable ridge strength and potential cooling trends later in the month, which could limit total breaks to the 21-100 range or allow a surge above 100 if heat expands eastward. With only a few days elapsed and mixed long-range outlooks, traders see balanced odds across mid-tier buckets, hinging on whether persistent high pressure produces widespread new monthly or all-time peaks at dozens of stations.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Recent Western U.S. heat waves, including triple-digit forecasts for early August 2026 across Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and parts of the northern plains, represent the main driver keeping the market tight. These conditions follow July's widespread record highs but remain concentrated in the West, where all-time marks at long-term stations are harder to break than daily records. Forecasters note variable ridge strength and potential cooling trends later in the month, which could limit total breaks to the 21-100 range or allow a surge above 100 if heat expands eastward. With only a few days elapsed and mixed long-range outlooks, traders see balanced odds across mid-tier buckets, hinging on whether persistent high pressure produces widespread new monthly or all-time peaks at dozens of stations.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Western U.S. heat waves, including triple-digit forecasts for early August 2026 across Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and parts of the northern plains, represent the main driver keeping the market tight. These conditions follow July's widespread record highs but remain concentrated in the West, where all-time marks at long-term stations are harder to break than daily records. Forecasters note variable ridge strength and potential cooling trends later in the month, which could limit total breaks to the 21-100 range or allow a surge above 100 if heat expands eastward. With only a few days elapsed and mixed long-range outlooks, traders see balanced odds across mid-tier buckets, hinging on whether persistent high pressure produces widespread new monthly or all-time peaks at dozens of stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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