**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide between August 3–9, 2026, according to USGS and other monitoring data.** The two largest events were magnitude 6.3 quakes on August 5—one offshore Sarangani, Philippines, and another south of the Kermadec Islands—both falling short of the threshold. Global seismicity remained typical for the interval, with no major subduction-zone ruptures or aftershock sequences pushing events into the 6.5+ range on the moment magnitude scale. Traders priced the zero-outcome at 90% because the week-long window closed without crossing the resolution criteria, consistent with historical weekly rates where multiple 6.5+ events are uncommon absent heightened activity along plate boundaries. No late-week model updates or new seismic observations altered this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
0 90%
1 9%
2 1.9%
3 <1%
$12,079 Vol.
$12,079 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
90%
1
9%
2
2%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 90%
1 9%
2 1.9%
3 <1%
$12,079 Vol.
$12,079 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
$6,786 Vol.
90%
1
$2,279 Vol.
9%
2
$405 Vol.
2%
3
$536 Vol.
1%
4
$415 Vol.
<1%
5
$854 Vol.
<1%
>5
$804 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide between August 3–9, 2026, according to USGS and other monitoring data.** The two largest events were magnitude 6.3 quakes on August 5—one offshore Sarangani, Philippines, and another south of the Kermadec Islands—both falling short of the threshold. Global seismicity remained typical for the interval, with no major subduction-zone ruptures or aftershock sequences pushing events into the 6.5+ range on the moment magnitude scale. Traders priced the zero-outcome at 90% because the week-long window closed without crossing the resolution criteria, consistent with historical weekly rates where multiple 6.5+ events are uncommon absent heightened activity along plate boundaries. No late-week model updates or new seismic observations altered this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$12,079End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide between August 3–9, 2026, according to USGS and other monitoring data.** The two largest events were magnitude 6.3 quakes on August 5—one offshore Sarangani, Philippines, and another south of the Kermadec Islands—both falling short of the threshold. Global seismicity remained typical for the interval, with no major subduction-zone ruptures or aftershock sequences pushing events into the 6.5+ range on the moment magnitude scale. Traders priced the zero-outcome at 90% because the week-long window closed without crossing the resolution criteria, consistent with historical weekly rates where multiple 6.5+ events are uncommon absent heightened activity along plate boundaries. No late-week model updates or new seismic observations altered this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$12,079End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide between August 3–9, 2026, according to USGS and other monitoring data.** The two largest events were magnitude 6.3 quakes on August 5—one offshore Sarangani, Philippines, and another south of the Kermadec Islands—both falling short of the threshold. Global seismicity remained typical for the interval, with no major subduction-zone ruptures or aftershock sequences pushing events into the 6.5+ range on the moment magnitude scale. Traders priced the zero-outcome at 90% because the week-long window closed without crossing the resolution criteria, consistent with historical weekly rates where multiple 6.5+ events are uncommon absent heightened activity along plate boundaries. No late-week model updates or new seismic observations altered this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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