No 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes have registered globally through August 8 in the USGS catalog, leaving only the final day of the August 3–9 window and supporting the 90% market-implied probability for zero events. Global rates average 15–20 such quakes annually, or roughly one every two to three weeks, with short-term quiet intervals common along subduction zones and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters elevating risk. Two M6.3 events on August 5, one deep south of the Kermadec Islands and one near the Philippines, fell below the threshold and align with typical background seismicity rather than signaling an uptick. Limited remaining time and stable monitoring data reinforce trader consensus favoring zero while acknowledging the low but nonzero chance of a late mainshock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
0 90%
1 9%
2 1.9%
3 <1%
$12,079 Vol.
$12,079 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
90%
1
9%
2
2%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 90%
1 9%
2 1.9%
3 <1%
$12,079 Vol.
$12,079 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
$6,786 Vol.
90%
1
$2,279 Vol.
9%
2
$405 Vol.
2%
3
$536 Vol.
1%
4
$415 Vol.
<1%
5
$854 Vol.
<1%
>5
$804 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes have registered globally through August 8 in the USGS catalog, leaving only the final day of the August 3–9 window and supporting the 90% market-implied probability for zero events. Global rates average 15–20 such quakes annually, or roughly one every two to three weeks, with short-term quiet intervals common along subduction zones and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters elevating risk. Two M6.3 events on August 5, one deep south of the Kermadec Islands and one near the Philippines, fell below the threshold and align with typical background seismicity rather than signaling an uptick. Limited remaining time and stable monitoring data reinforce trader consensus favoring zero while acknowledging the low but nonzero chance of a late mainshock.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$12,079End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes have registered globally through August 8 in the USGS catalog, leaving only the final day of the August 3–9 window and supporting the 90% market-implied probability for zero events. Global rates average 15–20 such quakes annually, or roughly one every two to three weeks, with short-term quiet intervals common along subduction zones and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters elevating risk. Two M6.3 events on August 5, one deep south of the Kermadec Islands and one near the Philippines, fell below the threshold and align with typical background seismicity rather than signaling an uptick. Limited remaining time and stable monitoring data reinforce trader consensus favoring zero while acknowledging the low but nonzero chance of a late mainshock.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$12,079End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...No 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes have registered globally through August 8 in the USGS catalog, leaving only the final day of the August 3–9 window and supporting the 90% market-implied probability for zero events. Global rates average 15–20 such quakes annually, or roughly one every two to three weeks, with short-term quiet intervals common along subduction zones and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters elevating risk. Two M6.3 events on August 5, one deep south of the Kermadec Islands and one near the Philippines, fell below the threshold and align with typical background seismicity rather than signaling an uptick. Limited remaining time and stable monitoring data reinforce trader consensus favoring zero while acknowledging the low but nonzero chance of a late mainshock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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