Skip to main content
icon for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?

icon for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?

Aug 24

Aug 31

Aug 24

Aug 31

1 99.5%

2 1.8%

5 <1%

3 <1%

Polymarket

$20,612 Vol.

1 99.5%

2 1.8%

5 <1%

3 <1%

Polymarket

$20,612 Vol.

1

$5,874 Vol.

100%

2

$4,582 Vol.

2%

3

$853 Vol.

<1%

4

$791 Vol.

<1%

5

$1,298 Vol.

1%

>5

$2,341 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake during August 17–23, 2026, because USGS records confirm only the M6.7 event in southern Peru on August 20 within that window. Surrounding days produced multiple events in the 5.5–6.2 range, including aftershocks near Indonesia and activity in the Scotia Sea and Japan, yet none reached the 6.5 threshold on official moment-magnitude scales. This aligns with typical weekly global rates of large quakes and the absence of any major tectonic sequences or foreshock clusters that could produce additional events. Revised magnitude upgrades or newly verified reports could theoretically alter the count, but current data and monitoring agency consensus make such shifts improbable before final resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$20,612
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake during August 17–23, 2026, because USGS records confirm only the M6.7 event in southern Peru on August 20 within that window. Surrounding days produced multiple events in the 5.5–6.2 range, including aftershocks near Indonesia and activity in the Scotia Sea and Japan, yet none reached the 6.5 threshold on official moment-magnitude scales. This aligns with typical weekly global rates of large quakes and the absence of any major tectonic sequences or foreshock clusters that could produce additional events. Revised magnitude upgrades or newly verified reports could theoretically alter the count, but current data and monitoring agency consensus make such shifts improbable before final resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$20,612
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Related

icon for Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

47%
icon for Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?

Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?

96%
icon for Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

20%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1" at 100%, followed by "2" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?" has generated $20.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?" is "1" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.