Trader sentiment for a global count of M5.5+ earthquakes centers on background rates of 1–2 events per day from subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with USGS monitoring showing typical activity through early August 2026. Recent detections include multiple M5.6 events in Alaska, Japan, and near Easter Island plus M6.3 shocks in the Philippines and Kermadec region, supporting the tight clustering around 7–9 total for the week. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on aftershock sequences, depth distribution, and whether marginal events near the 5.5 threshold receive final confirmation before the period closes, as historical weekly totals fluctuate with regional strain release and no anomalous swarm has emerged to shift probabilities decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
8 32%
7 29%
9 22%
10 14%
$29,105 Vol.
$29,105 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
<1%
7
29%
8
32%
9
22%
10
14%
11
6%
12
1%
13
1%
>13
1%
8 32%
7 29%
9 22%
10 14%
$29,105 Vol.
$29,105 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$17,628 Vol.
<1%
7
$1,414 Vol.
29%
8
$1,215 Vol.
32%
9
$1,418 Vol.
22%
10
$1,772 Vol.
14%
11
$558 Vol.
6%
12
$452 Vol.
1%
13
$501 Vol.
1%
>13
$4,148 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for a global count of M5.5+ earthquakes centers on background rates of 1–2 events per day from subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with USGS monitoring showing typical activity through early August 2026. Recent detections include multiple M5.6 events in Alaska, Japan, and near Easter Island plus M6.3 shocks in the Philippines and Kermadec region, supporting the tight clustering around 7–9 total for the week. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on aftershock sequences, depth distribution, and whether marginal events near the 5.5 threshold receive final confirmation before the period closes, as historical weekly totals fluctuate with regional strain release and no anomalous swarm has emerged to shift probabilities decisively.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$29,105End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for a global count of M5.5+ earthquakes centers on background rates of 1–2 events per day from subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with USGS monitoring showing typical activity through early August 2026. Recent detections include multiple M5.6 events in Alaska, Japan, and near Easter Island plus M6.3 shocks in the Philippines and Kermadec region, supporting the tight clustering around 7–9 total for the week. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on aftershock sequences, depth distribution, and whether marginal events near the 5.5 threshold receive final confirmation before the period closes, as historical weekly totals fluctuate with regional strain release and no anomalous swarm has emerged to shift probabilities decisively.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$29,105End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for a global count of M5.5+ earthquakes centers on background rates of 1–2 events per day from subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with USGS monitoring showing typical activity through early August 2026. Recent detections include multiple M5.6 events in Alaska, Japan, and near Easter Island plus M6.3 shocks in the Philippines and Kermadec region, supporting the tight clustering around 7–9 total for the week. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on aftershock sequences, depth distribution, and whether marginal events near the 5.5 threshold receive final confirmation before the period closes, as historical weekly totals fluctuate with regional strain release and no anomalous swarm has emerged to shift probabilities decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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