Trader sentiment for the August 3–9 count of M5.5+ events centers on typical weekly global rates of roughly 8–12 such quakes, driven by steady subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Key recent developments include a 6.1 Mw event south of the Kermadec Islands on August 5, a 5.5 Mw quake near Halmahera on the same day, a 6.4 Mw event in the Celebes Sea, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Philippines, New Zealand region, and Alaska on August 8, pushing the tally toward the market's leading 7–8 outcomes. Differentiation between these closely matched probabilities hinges on aftershock sequences, depth filtering, and final USGS catalog revisions before resolution, with no major swarm or quiet period shifting the distribution markedly in the final days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
7 35%
8 31%
9 19%
10 12%
$29,105 Vol.
$29,105 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
<1%
7
35%
8
31%
9
19%
10
12%
11
3%
12
1%
13
1%
>13
1%
7 35%
8 31%
9 19%
10 12%
$29,105 Vol.
$29,105 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$17,628 Vol.
<1%
7
$1,414 Vol.
35%
8
$1,215 Vol.
31%
9
$1,418 Vol.
19%
10
$1,772 Vol.
12%
11
$558 Vol.
3%
12
$452 Vol.
1%
13
$501 Vol.
1%
>13
$4,148 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for the August 3–9 count of M5.5+ events centers on typical weekly global rates of roughly 8–12 such quakes, driven by steady subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Key recent developments include a 6.1 Mw event south of the Kermadec Islands on August 5, a 5.5 Mw quake near Halmahera on the same day, a 6.4 Mw event in the Celebes Sea, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Philippines, New Zealand region, and Alaska on August 8, pushing the tally toward the market's leading 7–8 outcomes. Differentiation between these closely matched probabilities hinges on aftershock sequences, depth filtering, and final USGS catalog revisions before resolution, with no major swarm or quiet period shifting the distribution markedly in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$29,105End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for the August 3–9 count of M5.5+ events centers on typical weekly global rates of roughly 8–12 such quakes, driven by steady subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Key recent developments include a 6.1 Mw event south of the Kermadec Islands on August 5, a 5.5 Mw quake near Halmahera on the same day, a 6.4 Mw event in the Celebes Sea, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Philippines, New Zealand region, and Alaska on August 8, pushing the tally toward the market's leading 7–8 outcomes. Differentiation between these closely matched probabilities hinges on aftershock sequences, depth filtering, and final USGS catalog revisions before resolution, with no major swarm or quiet period shifting the distribution markedly in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$29,105End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the August 3–9 count of M5.5+ events centers on typical weekly global rates of roughly 8–12 such quakes, driven by steady subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Key recent developments include a 6.1 Mw event south of the Kermadec Islands on August 5, a 5.5 Mw quake near Halmahera on the same day, a 6.4 Mw event in the Celebes Sea, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Philippines, New Zealand region, and Alaska on August 8, pushing the tally toward the market's leading 7–8 outcomes. Differentiation between these closely matched probabilities hinges on aftershock sequences, depth filtering, and final USGS catalog revisions before resolution, with no major swarm or quiet period shifting the distribution markedly in the final days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
28%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?
90%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
48%
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Frequently Asked Questions