**Elevated aftershock activity and multiple significant mainshocks drove the strong trader consensus toward more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026.** USGS catalog data recorded roughly 15 qualifying events, well above the typical weekly baseline of 8–14, with notable clusters including aftershocks from the August 14 M7.7 Indonesia quake in the Flores Sea, plus events in Japan, the Scotia Sea, Peru, and elsewhere along active subduction zones. This outcome reflects real-time seismic monitoring rather than speculation, as global rates follow the Gutenberg-Richter relationship but can spike with aftershock sequences. The only realistic challenges would involve final USGS revisions removing borderline cases or precise timing exclusions, though current counts make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
$59,892 Vol.
$59,892 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
13
1%
>13
97%
$59,892 Vol.
$59,892 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
13
$8,385 Vol.
1%
>13
$21,241 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Elevated aftershock activity and multiple significant mainshocks drove the strong trader consensus toward more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026.** USGS catalog data recorded roughly 15 qualifying events, well above the typical weekly baseline of 8–14, with notable clusters including aftershocks from the August 14 M7.7 Indonesia quake in the Flores Sea, plus events in Japan, the Scotia Sea, Peru, and elsewhere along active subduction zones. This outcome reflects real-time seismic monitoring rather than speculation, as global rates follow the Gutenberg-Richter relationship but can spike with aftershock sequences. The only realistic challenges would involve final USGS revisions removing borderline cases or precise timing exclusions, though current counts make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$59,892End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Elevated aftershock activity and multiple significant mainshocks drove the strong trader consensus toward more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026.** USGS catalog data recorded roughly 15 qualifying events, well above the typical weekly baseline of 8–14, with notable clusters including aftershocks from the August 14 M7.7 Indonesia quake in the Flores Sea, plus events in Japan, the Scotia Sea, Peru, and elsewhere along active subduction zones. This outcome reflects real-time seismic monitoring rather than speculation, as global rates follow the Gutenberg-Richter relationship but can spike with aftershock sequences. The only realistic challenges would involve final USGS revisions removing borderline cases or precise timing exclusions, though current counts make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$59,892End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Elevated aftershock activity and multiple significant mainshocks drove the strong trader consensus toward more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026.** USGS catalog data recorded roughly 15 qualifying events, well above the typical weekly baseline of 8–14, with notable clusters including aftershocks from the August 14 M7.7 Indonesia quake in the Flores Sea, plus events in Japan, the Scotia Sea, Peru, and elsewhere along active subduction zones. This outcome reflects real-time seismic monitoring rather than speculation, as global rates follow the Gutenberg-Richter relationship but can spike with aftershock sequences. The only realistic challenges would involve final USGS revisions removing borderline cases or precise timing exclusions, though current counts make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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