Shailene Woodley leads the market at 53% implied probability for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series due to her standout turn in the critically praised Hulu drama *Paradise*, which earned multiple Emmy nods and benefits from concentrated voter attention. The Pitt’s three nominees—Brittany Allen (18.6%), Tina Ivlev (11.4%), and Tal Anderson (3.3%)—split support in a category where guest arcs often reward emotional impact, as seen in Allen’s self-submitted, memorable cancer-patient storyline that still trails. Merritt Wever (10.6%) draws on her prior Emmy wins and prestige from *The Gilded Age*, while Miriam Shor (4.9%) benefits from *Pluribus*’s strong buzz and Vince Gilligan pedigree. With Creative Arts ceremonies imminent on September 5–6, recent precursor momentum and the lack of a dominant frontrunner outside Woodley’s single-show positioning continue to shape trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series
Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” 53.0%
Brittany Allen – “The Pitt” 18.6%
Merritt Wever – “The Gilded Age” 10.5%
Tina Ivlev – “The Pitt” 4.9%
$33,711 Vol.
$33,711 Vol.
Shailene Woodley – “Paradise”
53%
Brittany Allen – “The Pitt”
19%
Merritt Wever – “The Gilded Age”
11%
Tina Ivlev – “The Pitt”
5%
Miriam Shor – “Pluribus”
4%
Tal Anderson – “The Pitt”
3%
Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” 53.0%
Brittany Allen – “The Pitt” 18.6%
Merritt Wever – “The Gilded Age” 10.5%
Tina Ivlev – “The Pitt” 4.9%
$33,711 Vol.
$33,711 Vol.
Shailene Woodley – “Paradise”
53%
Brittany Allen – “The Pitt”
19%
Merritt Wever – “The Gilded Age”
11%
Tina Ivlev – “The Pitt”
5%
Miriam Shor – “Pluribus”
4%
Tal Anderson – “The Pitt”
3%
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actress in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actress in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Shailene Woodley leads the market at 53% implied probability for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series due to her standout turn in the critically praised Hulu drama *Paradise*, which earned multiple Emmy nods and benefits from concentrated voter attention. The Pitt’s three nominees—Brittany Allen (18.6%), Tina Ivlev (11.4%), and Tal Anderson (3.3%)—split support in a category where guest arcs often reward emotional impact, as seen in Allen’s self-submitted, memorable cancer-patient storyline that still trails. Merritt Wever (10.6%) draws on her prior Emmy wins and prestige from *The Gilded Age*, while Miriam Shor (4.9%) benefits from *Pluribus*’s strong buzz and Vince Gilligan pedigree. With Creative Arts ceremonies imminent on September 5–6, recent precursor momentum and the lack of a dominant frontrunner outside Woodley’s single-show positioning continue to shape trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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