Costco's established pattern of modest earnings beats, backed by double-digit comparable sales growth and membership fee resilience, underpins the 70% market-implied probability that traders assign to an outperformance in the September 24 report. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 10.2% to $297.3 billion through August, with the latest monthly figure up 9.9% year-over-year, while digital channels continued to expand rapidly. Consensus estimates call for Q4 EPS near $6.54 and revenue around $94 billion, levels that align with the company's recent trajectory of 9-11% top-line gains. Elevated valuation multiples near 40-50x forward earnings and potential tariff-related margin pressure introduce some uncertainty, yet the wisdom of crowds in this prediction market continues to price in a solid likelihood of another modest beat given the durable warehouse model and stable renewal rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated70% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
70% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Costco's established pattern of modest earnings beats, backed by double-digit comparable sales growth and membership fee resilience, underpins the 70% market-implied probability that traders assign to an outperformance in the September 24 report. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 10.2% to $297.3 billion through August, with the latest monthly figure up 9.9% year-over-year, while digital channels continued to expand rapidly. Consensus estimates call for Q4 EPS near $6.54 and revenue around $94 billion, levels that align with the company's recent trajectory of 9-11% top-line gains. Elevated valuation multiples near 40-50x forward earnings and potential tariff-related margin pressure introduce some uncertainty, yet the wisdom of crowds in this prediction market continues to price in a solid likelihood of another modest beat given the durable warehouse model and stable renewal rates.
As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$1,210End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COST/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Costco's established pattern of modest earnings beats, backed by double-digit comparable sales growth and membership fee resilience, underpins the 70% market-implied probability that traders assign to an outperformance in the September 24 report. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 10.2% to $297.3 billion through August, with the latest monthly figure up 9.9% year-over-year, while digital channels continued to expand rapidly. Consensus estimates call for Q4 EPS near $6.54 and revenue around $94 billion, levels that align with the company's recent trajectory of 9-11% top-line gains. Elevated valuation multiples near 40-50x forward earnings and potential tariff-related margin pressure introduce some uncertainty, yet the wisdom of crowds in this prediction market continues to price in a solid likelihood of another modest beat given the durable warehouse model and stable renewal rates.
As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$1,210End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COST/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...Costco's established pattern of modest earnings beats, backed by double-digit comparable sales growth and membership fee resilience, underpins the 70% market-implied probability that traders assign to an outperformance in the September 24 report. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 10.2% to $297.3 billion through August, with the latest monthly figure up 9.9% year-over-year, while digital channels continued to expand rapidly. Consensus estimates call for Q4 EPS near $6.54 and revenue around $94 billion, levels that align with the company's recent trajectory of 9-11% top-line gains. Elevated valuation multiples near 40-50x forward earnings and potential tariff-related margin pressure introduce some uncertainty, yet the wisdom of crowds in this prediction market continues to price in a solid likelihood of another modest beat given the durable warehouse model and stable renewal rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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