The Bank of Korea’s recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes, lifting the base rate to 3.00% in August, have positioned a hold as the dominant outcome for the October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including August CPI at 3.1% year-over-year and accelerating core readings, alongside upgraded 2026 GDP growth projections to 3.3% fueled by semiconductor exports, supports the case for pausing to evaluate incoming data on prices, nominal GDP, and financial stability risks. Governor Shin Hyun-song has emphasized a data-dependent path, with the policy board’s dot plot pointing to 3.25% as the median six-month projection, indicating limited scope for immediate further tightening. Traders’ 22.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect residual upside risks from Middle East-related price pressures, while sub-1% probabilities on cuts align with the hawkish tilt in recent communications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 76%
25 bps hike 23%
50+ bps hike 2.6%
50+ bps cut <1%
$10,381 Vol.
$10,381 Vol.
Oct 21, 2026
50+ bps cut
1%
25 bps cut
<1%
No Change
76%
25 bps hike
23%
50+ bps hike
3%
No Change 76%
25 bps hike 23%
50+ bps hike 2.6%
50+ bps cut <1%
$10,381 Vol.
$10,381 Vol.
Oct 21, 2026
50+ bps cut
$213 Vol.
1%
25 bps cut
$366 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$5,997 Vol.
76%
25 bps hike
$3,502 Vol.
23%
50+ bps hike
$302 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes, lifting the base rate to 3.00% in August, have positioned a hold as the dominant outcome for the October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including August CPI at 3.1% year-over-year and accelerating core readings, alongside upgraded 2026 GDP growth projections to 3.3% fueled by semiconductor exports, supports the case for pausing to evaluate incoming data on prices, nominal GDP, and financial stability risks. Governor Shin Hyun-song has emphasized a data-dependent path, with the policy board’s dot plot pointing to 3.25% as the median six-month projection, indicating limited scope for immediate further tightening. Traders’ 22.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect residual upside risks from Middle East-related price pressures, while sub-1% probabilities on cuts align with the hawkish tilt in recent communications.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$10,381End Date
Oct 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes, lifting the base rate to 3.00% in August, have positioned a hold as the dominant outcome for the October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including August CPI at 3.1% year-over-year and accelerating core readings, alongside upgraded 2026 GDP growth projections to 3.3% fueled by semiconductor exports, supports the case for pausing to evaluate incoming data on prices, nominal GDP, and financial stability risks. Governor Shin Hyun-song has emphasized a data-dependent path, with the policy board’s dot plot pointing to 3.25% as the median six-month projection, indicating limited scope for immediate further tightening. Traders’ 22.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect residual upside risks from Middle East-related price pressures, while sub-1% probabilities on cuts align with the hawkish tilt in recent communications.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$10,381End Date
Oct 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Korea’s recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes, lifting the base rate to 3.00% in August, have positioned a hold as the dominant outcome for the October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including August CPI at 3.1% year-over-year and accelerating core readings, alongside upgraded 2026 GDP growth projections to 3.3% fueled by semiconductor exports, supports the case for pausing to evaluate incoming data on prices, nominal GDP, and financial stability risks. Governor Shin Hyun-song has emphasized a data-dependent path, with the policy board’s dot plot pointing to 3.25% as the median six-month projection, indicating limited scope for immediate further tightening. Traders’ 22.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect residual upside risks from Middle East-related price pressures, while sub-1% probabilities on cuts align with the hawkish tilt in recent communications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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