Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron’s August 18-19 remarks that the next policy meeting is “live” and subject to heightened uncertainty have anchored trader expectations for the early-September decision. Inflation printed at 1.5 percent in July, below the 2 percent target midpoint, yet Yaron signaled it is likely to rebound toward 2 percent, tempering the case for immediate further easing after the 50 basis points of cuts delivered in May and July that brought the policy rate to 3.5 percent. Strong second-quarter GDP growth of roughly 15 percent and a resilient labor market continue to support a gradual easing path, but recent geopolitical and fiscal risks have shifted the near-term bias toward holding rates steady. Market-implied odds of 89 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance, while the modest 11.5 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut captures the residual scope for additional accommodation if inflation remains subdued.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 89%
25 bps cut 12%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps hike <1%
$100,913 Vol.
$100,913 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
12%
No Change
89%
25 bps hike
<1%
50+ bps hike
<1%
No Change 89%
25 bps cut 12%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps hike <1%
$100,913 Vol.
$100,913 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
50+ bps cut
$6,069 Vol.
<1%
25 bps cut
$27,396 Vol.
12%
No Change
$59,357 Vol.
89%
25 bps hike
$5,348 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps hike
$2,743 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron’s August 18-19 remarks that the next policy meeting is “live” and subject to heightened uncertainty have anchored trader expectations for the early-September decision. Inflation printed at 1.5 percent in July, below the 2 percent target midpoint, yet Yaron signaled it is likely to rebound toward 2 percent, tempering the case for immediate further easing after the 50 basis points of cuts delivered in May and July that brought the policy rate to 3.5 percent. Strong second-quarter GDP growth of roughly 15 percent and a resilient labor market continue to support a gradual easing path, but recent geopolitical and fiscal risks have shifted the near-term bias toward holding rates steady. Market-implied odds of 89 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance, while the modest 11.5 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut captures the residual scope for additional accommodation if inflation remains subdued.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$100,913End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron’s August 18-19 remarks that the next policy meeting is “live” and subject to heightened uncertainty have anchored trader expectations for the early-September decision. Inflation printed at 1.5 percent in July, below the 2 percent target midpoint, yet Yaron signaled it is likely to rebound toward 2 percent, tempering the case for immediate further easing after the 50 basis points of cuts delivered in May and July that brought the policy rate to 3.5 percent. Strong second-quarter GDP growth of roughly 15 percent and a resilient labor market continue to support a gradual easing path, but recent geopolitical and fiscal risks have shifted the near-term bias toward holding rates steady. Market-implied odds of 89 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance, while the modest 11.5 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut captures the residual scope for additional accommodation if inflation remains subdued.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$100,913End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron’s August 18-19 remarks that the next policy meeting is “live” and subject to heightened uncertainty have anchored trader expectations for the early-September decision. Inflation printed at 1.5 percent in July, below the 2 percent target midpoint, yet Yaron signaled it is likely to rebound toward 2 percent, tempering the case for immediate further easing after the 50 basis points of cuts delivered in May and July that brought the policy rate to 3.5 percent. Strong second-quarter GDP growth of roughly 15 percent and a resilient labor market continue to support a gradual easing path, but recent geopolitical and fiscal risks have shifted the near-term bias toward holding rates steady. Market-implied odds of 89 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance, while the modest 11.5 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut captures the residual scope for additional accommodation if inflation remains subdued.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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