Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of prior petitions, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes sharply narrowed the process by limiting initiation primarily to the Prosecutor General’s office and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, effectively suspending key provisions of the 1950 impeachment statute. Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration provides little impetus for action in the remaining months of 2026. These institutional and procedural hurdles underpin the 96.6% trader consensus on “No.” A sudden reversal would require an extraordinary political crisis, a change in Senate leadership or majority, or an unexpected PGR initiative within the narrow window before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of prior petitions, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes sharply narrowed the process by limiting initiation primarily to the Prosecutor General’s office and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, effectively suspending key provisions of the 1950 impeachment statute. Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration provides little impetus for action in the remaining months of 2026. These institutional and procedural hurdles underpin the 96.6% trader consensus on “No.” A sudden reversal would require an extraordinary political crisis, a change in Senate leadership or majority, or an unexpected PGR initiative within the narrow window before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of prior petitions, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes sharply narrowed the process by limiting initiation primarily to the Prosecutor General’s office and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, effectively suspending key provisions of the 1950 impeachment statute. Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration provides little impetus for action in the remaining months of 2026. These institutional and procedural hurdles underpin the 96.6% trader consensus on “No.” A sudden reversal would require an extraordinary political crisis, a change in Senate leadership or majority, or an unexpected PGR initiative within the narrow window before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of prior petitions, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes sharply narrowed the process by limiting initiation primarily to the Prosecutor General’s office and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, effectively suspending key provisions of the 1950 impeachment statute. Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration provides little impetus for action in the remaining months of 2026. These institutional and procedural hurdles underpin the 96.6% trader consensus on “No.” A sudden reversal would require an extraordinary political crisis, a change in Senate leadership or majority, or an unexpected PGR initiative within the narrow window before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions