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icon for Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Politics·Turnout

Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

icon for Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Politics·Turnout

Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

230K-245K 44%

290K-305K 43%

305K-320K 43%

260K-275K 43%

Polymarket
NEW

230K-245K 44%

290K-305K 43%

305K-320K 43%

260K-275K 43%

Polymarket
NEW

<230K

$0 Vol.

40%

230K-245K

$0 Vol.

44%

245K-260K

$0 Vol.

43%

260K-275K

$0 Vol.

43%

275K-290K

$0 Vol.

43%

290K-305K

$0 Vol.

43%

305K-320K

$0 Vol.

43%

320K+

$0 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "230K-245K" at 44%, followed by "290K-305K" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)" is "230K-245K" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "290K-305K" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.