Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey released September 15, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly nine points amid President Trump’s 38 percent approval rating and widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy, cost of living, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. These factors align with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically gains ground against the incumbent administration. Trader pricing reflects broad consensus on a Democratic national popular vote advantage, with the largest probabilities clustered around 6-12 point margins, while elevated pricing on “Other” captures uncertainty over the precise spread and potential late-cycle shifts from campaign events, turnout variations, or economic data releases before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 22%
Democrats 10-12% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$133,598 Vol.
$133,598 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
20%
Democrats 8-10%
28%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
7%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
3%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
1%
Democrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 22%
Democrats 10-12% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$133,598 Vol.
$133,598 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,556 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$3,412 Vol.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,597 Vol.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$8,975 Vol.
20%
Democrats 8-10%
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Democrats 6-8%
$15,599 Vol.
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$7,010 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$15,636 Vol.
7%
Democrats 0-2%
$16,265 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,931 Vol.
3%
Republicans 2-4%
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey released September 15, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly nine points amid President Trump’s 38 percent approval rating and widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy, cost of living, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. These factors align with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically gains ground against the incumbent administration. Trader pricing reflects broad consensus on a Democratic national popular vote advantage, with the largest probabilities clustered around 6-12 point margins, while elevated pricing on “Other” captures uncertainty over the precise spread and potential late-cycle shifts from campaign events, turnout variations, or economic data releases before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$133,598End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey released September 15, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly nine points amid President Trump’s 38 percent approval rating and widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy, cost of living, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. These factors align with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically gains ground against the incumbent administration. Trader pricing reflects broad consensus on a Democratic national popular vote advantage, with the largest probabilities clustered around 6-12 point margins, while elevated pricing on “Other” captures uncertainty over the precise spread and potential late-cycle shifts from campaign events, turnout variations, or economic data releases before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$133,598End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey released September 15, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly nine points amid President Trump’s 38 percent approval rating and widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy, cost of living, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. These factors align with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically gains ground against the incumbent administration. Trader pricing reflects broad consensus on a Democratic national popular vote advantage, with the largest probabilities clustered around 6-12 point margins, while elevated pricing on “Other” captures uncertainty over the precise spread and potential late-cycle shifts from campaign events, turnout variations, or economic data releases before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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