Carlos Alcaraz leads the 2026 US Open men's singles market at 47.5% implied probability as the defending champion returning from a four-month wrist injury layoff that caused him to miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner's pre-tournament withdrawal with a right knee injury shifted the bracket and elevated Alcaraz and top seed Alexander Zverev, who sits at 24.6% after navigating early five-set tests and advancing convincingly into the Round of 16. American contenders Ben Shelton at 7.4%, Learner Tien, and Tommy Paul reflect strong domestic depth on the hard courts, while Daniil Medvedev holds steady at 6.5% amid a competitive field where recent form, draw positioning, and physical recovery continue to shape trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Alcaraz 48%
Alexander Zverev 24.6%
Ben Shelton 7.4%
Daniil Medvedev 6.6%
$20,858,953 Vol.
$20,858,953 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz
48%
Alexander Zverev
25%
Ben Shelton
7%
Daniil Medvedev
7%
Learner Tien
4%
Frances Tiafoe
2%
Alexander Blockx
1%
Tommy Paul
1%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1%
Alex Michelsen
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
1%
Karen Khachanov
1%
Luciano Darderi
<1%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
<1%
Casper Ruud
<1%
Carlos Alcaraz 48%
Alexander Zverev 24.6%
Ben Shelton 7.4%
Daniil Medvedev 6.6%
$20,858,953 Vol.
$20,858,953 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz
$1,839,293 Vol.
48%
Alexander Zverev
$901,369 Vol.
25%
Ben Shelton
$703,654 Vol.
7%
Daniil Medvedev
$820,712 Vol.
7%
Learner Tien
$418,828 Vol.
4%
Frances Tiafoe
$610,611 Vol.
2%
Alexander Blockx
$297,796 Vol.
1%
Tommy Paul
$353,536 Vol.
1%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
$294,967 Vol.
1%
Alex Michelsen
$313,674 Vol.
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
$254,046 Vol.
1%
Karen Khachanov
$322,130 Vol.
1%
Luciano Darderi
$196,738 Vol.
<1%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
$292,074 Vol.
<1%
Casper Ruud
$23,618 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz leads the 2026 US Open men's singles market at 47.5% implied probability as the defending champion returning from a four-month wrist injury layoff that caused him to miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner's pre-tournament withdrawal with a right knee injury shifted the bracket and elevated Alcaraz and top seed Alexander Zverev, who sits at 24.6% after navigating early five-set tests and advancing convincingly into the Round of 16. American contenders Ben Shelton at 7.4%, Learner Tien, and Tommy Paul reflect strong domestic depth on the hard courts, while Daniil Medvedev holds steady at 6.5% amid a competitive field where recent form, draw positioning, and physical recovery continue to shape trader consensus.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$20,858,953End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz leads the 2026 US Open men's singles market at 47.5% implied probability as the defending champion returning from a four-month wrist injury layoff that caused him to miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner's pre-tournament withdrawal with a right knee injury shifted the bracket and elevated Alcaraz and top seed Alexander Zverev, who sits at 24.6% after navigating early five-set tests and advancing convincingly into the Round of 16. American contenders Ben Shelton at 7.4%, Learner Tien, and Tommy Paul reflect strong domestic depth on the hard courts, while Daniil Medvedev holds steady at 6.5% amid a competitive field where recent form, draw positioning, and physical recovery continue to shape trader consensus.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,858,953End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Carlos Alcaraz leads the 2026 US Open men's singles market at 47.5% implied probability as the defending champion returning from a four-month wrist injury layoff that caused him to miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner's pre-tournament withdrawal with a right knee injury shifted the bracket and elevated Alcaraz and top seed Alexander Zverev, who sits at 24.6% after navigating early five-set tests and advancing convincingly into the Round of 16. American contenders Ben Shelton at 7.4%, Learner Tien, and Tommy Paul reflect strong domestic depth on the hard courts, while Daniil Medvedev holds steady at 6.5% amid a competitive field where recent form, draw positioning, and physical recovery continue to shape trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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