Recent rapid intensification of El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and coupled atmospheric-oceanic feedbacks, drives the 87.9% market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026, with dynamic models including ECMWF projecting peak anomalies rivaling or surpassing historical records such as 1997–98. Subsurface ocean heat content, negative Southern Oscillation Index values, and westerly wind anomalies support continued strengthening through early 2027, when a 97% probability of persistence exists. Traders weigh this model consensus and observed thresholds against typical ENSO variability, where even strong events can moderate before winter resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Habrá un Super El Niño este invierno (2026–27)?
¿Habrá un Super El Niño este invierno (2026–27)?
Sí
88% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 abr 2027
Sí
88% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 abr 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent rapid intensification of El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and coupled atmospheric-oceanic feedbacks, drives the 87.9% market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026, with dynamic models including ECMWF projecting peak anomalies rivaling or surpassing historical records such as 1997–98. Subsurface ocean heat content, negative Southern Oscillation Index values, and westerly wind anomalies support continued strengthening through early 2027, when a 97% probability of persistence exists. Traders weigh this model consensus and observed thresholds against typical ENSO variability, where even strong events can moderate before winter resolution.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volumen
$4,126Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent rapid intensification of El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and coupled atmospheric-oceanic feedbacks, drives the 87.9% market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026, with dynamic models including ECMWF projecting peak anomalies rivaling or surpassing historical records such as 1997–98. Subsurface ocean heat content, negative Southern Oscillation Index values, and westerly wind anomalies support continued strengthening through early 2027, when a 97% probability of persistence exists. Traders weigh this model consensus and observed thresholds against typical ENSO variability, where even strong events can moderate before winter resolution.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volumen
$4,126Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent rapid intensification of El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and coupled atmospheric-oceanic feedbacks, drives the 87.9% market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026, with dynamic models including ECMWF projecting peak anomalies rivaling or surpassing historical records such as 1997–98. Subsurface ocean heat content, negative Southern Oscillation Index values, and westerly wind anomalies support continued strengthening through early 2027, when a 97% probability of persistence exists. Traders weigh this model consensus and observed thresholds against typical ENSO variability, where even strong events can moderate before winter resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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