Apple’s longstanding annual release cadence and verified supply-chain preparations for September 2026 launches of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models underpin the 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 debut. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced delays or major production setbacks just weeks before the expected keynote, alongside consistent reporting on new silicon and a foldable variant joining the flagship lineup. While historical precedent favors on-time fall availability, realistic risks remain from last-minute component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen manufacturing issues that could shift the base iPhone 18 models into 2027 while still allowing Pro variants to ship this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
99% probabilidad
$173,200 Vol.
$173,200 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
99% probabilidad
$173,200 Vol.
$173,200 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding annual release cadence and verified supply-chain preparations for September 2026 launches of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models underpin the 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 debut. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced delays or major production setbacks just weeks before the expected keynote, alongside consistent reporting on new silicon and a foldable variant joining the flagship lineup. While historical precedent favors on-time fall availability, realistic risks remain from last-minute component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen manufacturing issues that could shift the base iPhone 18 models into 2027 while still allowing Pro variants to ship this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$173,200Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding annual release cadence and verified supply-chain preparations for September 2026 launches of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models underpin the 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 debut. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced delays or major production setbacks just weeks before the expected keynote, alongside consistent reporting on new silicon and a foldable variant joining the flagship lineup. While historical precedent favors on-time fall availability, realistic risks remain from last-minute component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen manufacturing issues that could shift the base iPhone 18 models into 2027 while still allowing Pro variants to ship this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$173,200Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s longstanding annual release cadence and verified supply-chain preparations for September 2026 launches of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models underpin the 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 debut. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any announced delays or major production setbacks just weeks before the expected keynote, alongside consistent reporting on new silicon and a foldable variant joining the flagship lineup. While historical precedent favors on-time fall availability, realistic risks remain from last-minute component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen manufacturing issues that could shift the base iPhone 18 models into 2027 while still allowing Pro variants to ship this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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