**In Alaska’s August 18, 2026 nonpartisan top-four primary, a crowded field of roughly 15–20 candidates—including incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R), former Rep. Mary Peltola (D), a second Republican named Dan J. Sullivan, Dustin Darden, and numerous lesser-known contenders—makes the plurality vote leader highly uncertain, keeping market odds tightly clustered near even or low probabilities for any single name.** The recent Alaska Supreme Court ruling allowing the second Dan Sullivan on the ballot has amplified voter-confusion risks in a system where only the top four advance to the ranked-choice general, potentially splitting Republican-leaning votes while Peltola benefits from statewide name recognition after her prior wins. Incumbent Sullivan holds structural advantages in fundraising and party infrastructure, yet recent general-election polling shows Peltola competitive or ahead, underscoring the open primary’s volatility. Minor candidates face steep barriers from low visibility and limited resources. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation: no candidate has consolidated broad support weeks out, and outcomes hinge on turnout, name-recognition effects, and any late endorsements or spending surges that could separate frontrunners before primary day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Ganador del voto en la ronda final de las primarias del Senado de Alaska?
¿Ganador del voto en la ronda final de las primarias del Senado de Alaska?
Mary Peltola 64%
Senador Dan S. Sullivan 32.9%
Richard Grayson 1.6%
Heather McElwain <1%
$15,493 Vol.
$15,493 Vol.
Mary Peltola
64%
Senador Dan S. Sullivan
33%
Richard Grayson
2%
Heather McElwain
1%
Shirley Saucerman
1%
Richard Benedict Mayers
1%
David Leslie
1%
Dan J. Sullivan
1%
Scott Kohlhaas
1%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Fred C. Grauberger
<1%
Earl D. "Skip" Southworth
9%
Reece Roberts
<1%
Carol Hafner
<1%
Gerald L. Heikes
<1%
Sid Hill
<1%
Mary Peltola 64%
Senador Dan S. Sullivan 32.9%
Richard Grayson 1.6%
Heather McElwain <1%
$15,493 Vol.
$15,493 Vol.
Mary Peltola
64%
Senador Dan S. Sullivan
33%
Richard Grayson
2%
Heather McElwain
1%
Shirley Saucerman
1%
Richard Benedict Mayers
1%
David Leslie
1%
Dan J. Sullivan
1%
Scott Kohlhaas
1%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Fred C. Grauberger
<1%
Earl D. "Skip" Southworth
9%
Reece Roberts
<1%
Carol Hafner
<1%
Gerald L. Heikes
<1%
Sid Hill
<1%
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Mercado abierto: Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**In Alaska’s August 18, 2026 nonpartisan top-four primary, a crowded field of roughly 15–20 candidates—including incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R), former Rep. Mary Peltola (D), a second Republican named Dan J. Sullivan, Dustin Darden, and numerous lesser-known contenders—makes the plurality vote leader highly uncertain, keeping market odds tightly clustered near even or low probabilities for any single name.** The recent Alaska Supreme Court ruling allowing the second Dan Sullivan on the ballot has amplified voter-confusion risks in a system where only the top four advance to the ranked-choice general, potentially splitting Republican-leaning votes while Peltola benefits from statewide name recognition after her prior wins. Incumbent Sullivan holds structural advantages in fundraising and party infrastructure, yet recent general-election polling shows Peltola competitive or ahead, underscoring the open primary’s volatility. Minor candidates face steep barriers from low visibility and limited resources. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation: no candidate has consolidated broad support weeks out, and outcomes hinge on turnout, name-recognition effects, and any late endorsements or spending surges that could separate frontrunners before primary day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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