Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMoonshot 52%
Alibaba 36%
Z.ai 9.2%
DeepSeek 5.3%
$11,825 Vol.
$11,825 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Moonshot
52%
Alibaba
36%
Z.ai
9%
DeepSeek
5%
MiniMax
2%
ByteDance
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 52%
Alibaba 36%
Z.ai 9.2%
DeepSeek 5.3%
$11,825 Vol.
$11,825 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Moonshot
$3,476 Vol.
52%
Alibaba
$2,678 Vol.
36%
Z.ai
$1,020 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$731 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$635 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$660 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$667 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$417 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$532 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$527 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$483 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$11,825Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$11,825Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s July 16 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which tops several Chinese coding and agent benchmarks while narrowing the gap to leading U.S. systems, has intensified competition for second place behind DeepSeek. Traders see a tight race among Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen3.7 series with its strong agentic coding results, Z.ai’s GLM-5 models, ByteDance’s Seed offerings, Baidu, MiniMax, and StepFun, each differentiated by parameter scale, context length, open-weight availability, and specialized strengths in reasoning or multimodal tasks. With no dominant consensus and resolution less than six weeks away, market-implied odds near 50% reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the possibility of further updates shifting relative positioning before the end of August.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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