Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning her for the November general election against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in Oregon's 4th congressional district. The district's southern Willamette Valley footprint, including Eugene and Corvallis, has shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, with Hoyle holding the seat since 2023 after a 2024 win of 51.7 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with this baseline partisan tilt and the absence of major disruptions such as scandals or redistricting changes. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican performance or unexpected shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, though no such developments have materialized ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOR-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
OR-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$21,105 Vol.
$21,105 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
7%
$21,105 Vol.
$21,105 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,754 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$6,351 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning her for the November general election against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in Oregon's 4th congressional district. The district's southern Willamette Valley footprint, including Eugene and Corvallis, has shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, with Hoyle holding the seat since 2023 after a 2024 win of 51.7 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with this baseline partisan tilt and the absence of major disruptions such as scandals or redistricting changes. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican performance or unexpected shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, though no such developments have materialized ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$21,105Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning her for the November general election against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in Oregon's 4th congressional district. The district's southern Willamette Valley footprint, including Eugene and Corvallis, has shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, with Hoyle holding the seat since 2023 after a 2024 win of 51.7 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with this baseline partisan tilt and the absence of major disruptions such as scandals or redistricting changes. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican performance or unexpected shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, though no such developments have materialized ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,105Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning her for the November general election against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain in Oregon's 4th congressional district. The district's southern Willamette Valley footprint, including Eugene and Corvallis, has shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, with Hoyle holding the seat since 2023 after a 2024 win of 51.7 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with this baseline partisan tilt and the absence of major disruptions such as scandals or redistricting changes. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican performance or unexpected shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, though no such developments have materialized ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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