Vail Resorts (MTN) faces elevated odds of missing consensus GAAP EPS estimates for fiscal Q4 2026 (ending July 31) ahead of its September 28 release, with the market assigning a 75.5% implied probability to “No.” Persistent unfavorable weather in key Rocky Mountain and Tahoe markets drove Q3 visitation down sharply, producing a 7% year-over-year revenue decline and an EPS miss versus the $8.99 consensus. Management responded by cutting full-year Resort EBITDA guidance to $735–755 million, citing late-season conditions that compounded already weak snowpack. Early season-pass sales for 2026/2027 are also down roughly 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance demand and pressuring margins. These factors, combined with a high dividend payout ratio and elevated leverage, have sustained negative sentiment into the seasonally loss-making Q4, where the current Street estimate sits at –$5.24. Traders appear to view further downside surprises or in-line results as the base case absent a rapid improvement in forward bookings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Vail Resorts (MTN) superará las ganancias trimestrales?
¿Vail Resorts (MTN) superará las ganancias trimestrales?
Sí
25% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 sep 2026
Sí
25% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 sep 2026
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Vail Resorts (MTN) faces elevated odds of missing consensus GAAP EPS estimates for fiscal Q4 2026 (ending July 31) ahead of its September 28 release, with the market assigning a 75.5% implied probability to “No.” Persistent unfavorable weather in key Rocky Mountain and Tahoe markets drove Q3 visitation down sharply, producing a 7% year-over-year revenue decline and an EPS miss versus the $8.99 consensus. Management responded by cutting full-year Resort EBITDA guidance to $735–755 million, citing late-season conditions that compounded already weak snowpack. Early season-pass sales for 2026/2027 are also down roughly 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance demand and pressuring margins. These factors, combined with a high dividend payout ratio and elevated leverage, have sustained negative sentiment into the seasonally loss-making Q4, where the current Street estimate sits at –$5.24. Traders appear to view further downside surprises or in-line results as the base case absent a rapid improvement in forward bookings.
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Mercado abierto: Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volumen
$577Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTN/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Vail Resorts (MTN) faces elevated odds of missing consensus GAAP EPS estimates for fiscal Q4 2026 (ending July 31) ahead of its September 28 release, with the market assigning a 75.5% implied probability to “No.” Persistent unfavorable weather in key Rocky Mountain and Tahoe markets drove Q3 visitation down sharply, producing a 7% year-over-year revenue decline and an EPS miss versus the $8.99 consensus. Management responded by cutting full-year Resort EBITDA guidance to $735–755 million, citing late-season conditions that compounded already weak snowpack. Early season-pass sales for 2026/2027 are also down roughly 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance demand and pressuring margins. These factors, combined with a high dividend payout ratio and elevated leverage, have sustained negative sentiment into the seasonally loss-making Q4, where the current Street estimate sits at –$5.24. Traders appear to view further downside surprises or in-line results as the base case absent a rapid improvement in forward bookings.
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volumen
$577Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTN/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...Vail Resorts (MTN) faces elevated odds of missing consensus GAAP EPS estimates for fiscal Q4 2026 (ending July 31) ahead of its September 28 release, with the market assigning a 75.5% implied probability to “No.” Persistent unfavorable weather in key Rocky Mountain and Tahoe markets drove Q3 visitation down sharply, producing a 7% year-over-year revenue decline and an EPS miss versus the $8.99 consensus. Management responded by cutting full-year Resort EBITDA guidance to $735–755 million, citing late-season conditions that compounded already weak snowpack. Early season-pass sales for 2026/2027 are also down roughly 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance demand and pressuring margins. These factors, combined with a high dividend payout ratio and elevated leverage, have sustained negative sentiment into the seasonally loss-making Q4, where the current Street estimate sits at –$5.24. Traders appear to view further downside surprises or in-line results as the base case absent a rapid improvement in forward bookings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes