**Forecast models and real-time observations position the overnight minimum in Madrid on September 17, 2026, in the 12–16 °C range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities clustering there.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under high pressure, combined with light northeast winds and radiative cooling overnight, are driving the expected drop from daytime highs near 24–26 °C. Madrid’s elevation (~650 m) and typical September climatology (average low ~15.3 °C) support this; recent days showed a brief cool spell (13.2 °C minimum on September 10) followed by warming, with current guidance indicating renewed cooling as skies clear. Numerical weather models show tight clustering around 13–15 °C for the daily minimum, with limited downside risk below 12 °C or upside above 16 °C absent unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders are pricing the highest probability (49 %) on 12 °C or below while assigning substantial weight (~35 % each) to the 13–16 °C bins, reflecting both model consensus and the inherent uncertainty in exact minimum timing and local microclimate variations. No major synoptic changes are expected before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más baja en Madrid el 17 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más baja en Madrid el 17 de septiembre?
12°C o menos 47%
13°C 47%
14°C 47%
16°C 46%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 sep 2026
12°C o menos
47%
13°C
47%
14°C
47%
15°C
46%
16°C
46%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C o más
<1%
12°C o menos 47%
13°C 47%
14°C 47%
16°C 46%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 sep 2026
12°C o menos
$46 Vol.
47%
13°C
$1 Vol.
47%
14°C
$4 Vol.
47%
15°C
$17 Vol.
46%
16°C
$0 Vol.
46%
17°C
$57 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$57 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$57 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
22°C o más
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations position the overnight minimum in Madrid on September 17, 2026, in the 12–16 °C range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities clustering there.**
Clear to partly cloudy skies under high pressure, combined with light northeast winds and radiative cooling overnight, are driving the expected drop from daytime highs near 24–26 °C. Madrid’s elevation (~650 m) and typical September climatology (average low ~15.3 °C) support this; recent days showed a brief cool spell (13.2 °C minimum on September 10) followed by warming, with current guidance indicating renewed cooling as skies clear.
Numerical weather models show tight clustering around 13–15 °C for the daily minimum, with limited downside risk below 12 °C or upside above 16 °C absent unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders are pricing the highest probability (49 %) on 12 °C or below while assigning substantial weight (~35 % each) to the 13–16 °C bins, reflecting both model consensus and the inherent uncertainty in exact minimum timing and local microclimate variations. No major synoptic changes are expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$337Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations position the overnight minimum in Madrid on September 17, 2026, in the 12–16 °C range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities clustering there.**
Clear to partly cloudy skies under high pressure, combined with light northeast winds and radiative cooling overnight, are driving the expected drop from daytime highs near 24–26 °C. Madrid’s elevation (~650 m) and typical September climatology (average low ~15.3 °C) support this; recent days showed a brief cool spell (13.2 °C minimum on September 10) followed by warming, with current guidance indicating renewed cooling as skies clear.
Numerical weather models show tight clustering around 13–15 °C for the daily minimum, with limited downside risk below 12 °C or upside above 16 °C absent unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders are pricing the highest probability (49 %) on 12 °C or below while assigning substantial weight (~35 % each) to the 13–16 °C bins, reflecting both model consensus and the inherent uncertainty in exact minimum timing and local microclimate variations. No major synoptic changes are expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$337Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and real-time observations position the overnight minimum in Madrid on September 17, 2026, in the 12–16 °C range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities clustering there.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under high pressure, combined with light northeast winds and radiative cooling overnight, are driving the expected drop from daytime highs near 24–26 °C. Madrid’s elevation (~650 m) and typical September climatology (average low ~15.3 °C) support this; recent days showed a brief cool spell (13.2 °C minimum on September 10) followed by warming, with current guidance indicating renewed cooling as skies clear. Numerical weather models show tight clustering around 13–15 °C for the daily minimum, with limited downside risk below 12 °C or upside above 16 °C absent unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders are pricing the highest probability (49 %) on 12 °C or below while assigning substantial weight (~35 % each) to the 13–16 °C bins, reflecting both model consensus and the inherent uncertainty in exact minimum timing and local microclimate variations. No major synoptic changes are expected before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes