Recent global bond market pressures, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have pushed Japan's 10-year government bond yield to approximately 2.99% as of mid-September 2026, supporting the 65.8% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end. Persistent domestic price pressures, with August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year and strong nominal wage growth of 4.7% in July, align with Bank of Japan expectations for further policy normalization, including an anticipated rate hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside a weaker yen and AI-related demand, though uncertainty around the pace of tightening and external inflation trajectories could influence the final outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3.0%+ 65.9%
2.8-3.0% 10.9%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.4%
$29,222 Vol.
$29,222 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
5%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
2%
2.8-3.0%
11%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 65.9%
2.8-3.0% 10.9%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.4%
$29,222 Vol.
$29,222 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<2.0%
$1,360 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Vol.
5%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Vol.
2%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 Vol.
11%
3.0%+
$11,134 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent global bond market pressures, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have pushed Japan's 10-year government bond yield to approximately 2.99% as of mid-September 2026, supporting the 65.8% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end. Persistent domestic price pressures, with August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year and strong nominal wage growth of 4.7% in July, align with Bank of Japan expectations for further policy normalization, including an anticipated rate hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside a weaker yen and AI-related demand, though uncertainty around the pace of tightening and external inflation trajectories could influence the final outcome.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Mercado abierto: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$29,222Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent global bond market pressures, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have pushed Japan's 10-year government bond yield to approximately 2.99% as of mid-September 2026, supporting the 65.8% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end. Persistent domestic price pressures, with August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year and strong nominal wage growth of 4.7% in July, align with Bank of Japan expectations for further policy normalization, including an anticipated rate hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside a weaker yen and AI-related demand, though uncertainty around the pace of tightening and external inflation trajectories could influence the final outcome.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volumen
$29,222Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global bond market pressures, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have pushed Japan's 10-year government bond yield to approximately 2.99% as of mid-September 2026, supporting the 65.8% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end. Persistent domestic price pressures, with August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year and strong nominal wage growth of 4.7% in July, align with Bank of Japan expectations for further policy normalization, including an anticipated rate hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside a weaker yen and AI-related demand, though uncertainty around the pace of tightening and external inflation trajectories could influence the final outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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