The Reservists–New Economic Party alliance, formed in early September 2026 after Yoaz Hendel’s split from Hili Tropper and partnership with Yaron Zelekha, faces polling volatility near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote. Recent surveys show the slate at or just above the bar in some cases (projecting four seats) but below it in others, reflecting uncertainty over its ability to consolidate reservist, center-right, and economic-reform voters amid competition from larger blocs. Candidate list finalization on September 8 and mixed results in mid-September polls from Channel 12 and others have kept trader probabilities distributed across narrow bands around 2.75–4.25%, with the sub-threshold outcome holding the highest implied probability due to the alliance’s limited track record and bloc realignments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado<2,75% 37%
3,25-3,75% 24%
2,75-3,25% 23%
4,25%+ 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
<2,75%
37%
2,75-3,25%
23%
3,25-3,75%
24%
3.75-4.25%
17%
4,25%+
17%
<2,75% 37%
3,25-3,75% 24%
2,75-3,25% 23%
4,25%+ 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
<2,75%
$89 Vol.
37%
2,75-3,25%
$40 Vol.
23%
3,25-3,75%
$44 Vol.
24%
3.75-4.25%
$37 Vol.
17%
4,25%+
$37 Vol.
17%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Reservists – New Economic Party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Reservists – New Economic Party merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).The Reservists–New Economic Party alliance, formed in early September 2026 after Yoaz Hendel’s split from Hili Tropper and partnership with Yaron Zelekha, faces polling volatility near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote. Recent surveys show the slate at or just above the bar in some cases (projecting four seats) but below it in others, reflecting uncertainty over its ability to consolidate reservist, center-right, and economic-reform voters amid competition from larger blocs. Candidate list finalization on September 8 and mixed results in mid-September polls from Channel 12 and others have kept trader probabilities distributed across narrow bands around 2.75–4.25%, with the sub-threshold outcome holding the highest implied probability due to the alliance’s limited track record and bloc realignments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Reservists – New Economic Party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Reservists – New Economic Party merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Reservists – New Economic Party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Reservists – New Economic Party merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 9, 2026, 5:21 PM ET
Volumen
$247Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 5:21 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Reservists – New Economic Party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Reservists – New Economic Party merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).The Reservists–New Economic Party alliance, formed in early September 2026 after Yoaz Hendel’s split from Hili Tropper and partnership with Yaron Zelekha, faces polling volatility near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote. Recent surveys show the slate at or just above the bar in some cases (projecting four seats) but below it in others, reflecting uncertainty over its ability to consolidate reservist, center-right, and economic-reform voters amid competition from larger blocs. Candidate list finalization on September 8 and mixed results in mid-September polls from Channel 12 and others have kept trader probabilities distributed across narrow bands around 2.75–4.25%, with the sub-threshold outcome holding the highest implied probability due to the alliance’s limited track record and bloc realignments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Reservists – New Economic Party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Reservists – New Economic Party merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Reservists – New Economic Party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Reservists – New Economic Party merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$247Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 5:21 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Reservists–New Economic Party alliance, formed in early September 2026 after Yoaz Hendel’s split from Hili Tropper and partnership with Yaron Zelekha, faces polling volatility near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote. Recent surveys show the slate at or just above the bar in some cases (projecting four seats) but below it in others, reflecting uncertainty over its ability to consolidate reservist, center-right, and economic-reform voters amid competition from larger blocs. Candidate list finalization on September 8 and mixed results in mid-September polls from Channel 12 and others have kept trader probabilities distributed across narrow bands around 2.75–4.25%, with the sub-threshold outcome holding the highest implied probability due to the alliance’s limited track record and bloc realignments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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