Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$185,989 Vol.
17 ago 2026
17 de agosto
51%
18 de agosto
38%
August 23
3%
24 de agosto
48%
25 de agosto
37%
26 de agosto
24%
27 de agosto
35%
August 28
25%
29 de agosto
19%
30 de agosto
24%
31 de agosto
25%
$185,989 Vol.
17 de agosto
$5,546 Vol.
51%
18 de agosto
$2,542 Vol.
38%
August 23
$4,030 Vol.
3%
24 de agosto
$10,406 Vol.
48%
25 de agosto
$901 Vol.
37%
26 de agosto
$1,173 Vol.
24%
27 de agosto
$558 Vol.
35%
August 28
$1,517 Vol.
25%
29 de agosto
$2,759 Vol.
19%
30 de agosto
$834 Vol.
24%
31 de agosto
$3,669 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volumen
$185,989Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$185,989Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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