Traders assign a 96.7% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show entrenched positions and stalled progress. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran outlined talks on sanctions relief and the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending, yet Iranian officials have rejected any fixed 60-day deadline, emphasized that decisions rest solely on national interests, and maintained that enrichment rights remain non-negotiable. IAEA access to damaged sites remains disputed, and satellite imagery indicates continued activity at underground facilities. A sudden breakthrough in extended bilateral or mediated negotiations could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$64,142 Vol.
$64,142 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$64,142 Vol.
$64,142 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 96.7% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show entrenched positions and stalled progress. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran outlined talks on sanctions relief and the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending, yet Iranian officials have rejected any fixed 60-day deadline, emphasized that decisions rest solely on national interests, and maintained that enrichment rights remain non-negotiable. IAEA access to damaged sites remains disputed, and satellite imagery indicates continued activity at underground facilities. A sudden breakthrough in extended bilateral or mediated negotiations could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volumen
$64,142Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 96.7% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show entrenched positions and stalled progress. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran outlined talks on sanctions relief and the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending, yet Iranian officials have rejected any fixed 60-day deadline, emphasized that decisions rest solely on national interests, and maintained that enrichment rights remain non-negotiable. IAEA access to damaged sites remains disputed, and satellite imagery indicates continued activity at underground facilities. A sudden breakthrough in extended bilateral or mediated negotiations could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$64,142Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.7% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show entrenched positions and stalled progress. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran outlined talks on sanctions relief and the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending, yet Iranian officials have rejected any fixed 60-day deadline, emphasized that decisions rest solely on national interests, and maintained that enrichment rights remain non-negotiable. IAEA access to damaged sites remains disputed, and satellite imagery indicates continued activity at underground facilities. A sudden breakthrough in extended bilateral or mediated negotiations could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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