Recent July activity, including landfalls from Maysak, Bavi, and Noul plus the imminent arrival of Dolphin, has boosted 2026 counts toward or above the long-term average of roughly seven to eight, aligning with National Climate Center guidance for seven to nine total amid elevated Northwest Pacific formation. Traders weigh El Niño influences, which favor more westward and northwestward tracks toward eastern and southern China coasts, against potential late-season shifts in steering patterns or reduced genesis rates after peak months. Model consensus on remaining August–December storms and precise landfall thresholds (Saffir-Simpson intensity and geographic boundaries) creates the narrow spread between eight and greater-than-eight outcomes, with historical analogs showing high interannual variability driven by monsoon trough position and sea-surface temperatures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos ciclones tropicales tocarán tierra en China durante 2026?
¿Cuántos ciclones tropicales tocarán tierra en China durante 2026?
Más de 8 42%
8 41%
5 38%
6 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2027
Menos de 5
24%
5
38%
6
34%
7
34%
8
41%
Más de 8
42%
Más de 8 42%
8 41%
5 38%
6 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2027
Menos de 5
$92 Vol.
24%
5
$0 Vol.
38%
6
$0 Vol.
34%
7
$0 Vol.
34%
8
$0 Vol.
41%
Más de 8
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent July activity, including landfalls from Maysak, Bavi, and Noul plus the imminent arrival of Dolphin, has boosted 2026 counts toward or above the long-term average of roughly seven to eight, aligning with National Climate Center guidance for seven to nine total amid elevated Northwest Pacific formation. Traders weigh El Niño influences, which favor more westward and northwestward tracks toward eastern and southern China coasts, against potential late-season shifts in steering patterns or reduced genesis rates after peak months. Model consensus on remaining August–December storms and precise landfall thresholds (Saffir-Simpson intensity and geographic boundaries) creates the narrow spread between eight and greater-than-eight outcomes, with historical analogs showing high interannual variability driven by monsoon trough position and sea-surface temperatures.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Mercado abierto: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volumen
$92Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent July activity, including landfalls from Maysak, Bavi, and Noul plus the imminent arrival of Dolphin, has boosted 2026 counts toward or above the long-term average of roughly seven to eight, aligning with National Climate Center guidance for seven to nine total amid elevated Northwest Pacific formation. Traders weigh El Niño influences, which favor more westward and northwestward tracks toward eastern and southern China coasts, against potential late-season shifts in steering patterns or reduced genesis rates after peak months. Model consensus on remaining August–December storms and precise landfall thresholds (Saffir-Simpson intensity and geographic boundaries) creates the narrow spread between eight and greater-than-eight outcomes, with historical analogs showing high interannual variability driven by monsoon trough position and sea-surface temperatures.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volumen
$92Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July activity, including landfalls from Maysak, Bavi, and Noul plus the imminent arrival of Dolphin, has boosted 2026 counts toward or above the long-term average of roughly seven to eight, aligning with National Climate Center guidance for seven to nine total amid elevated Northwest Pacific formation. Traders weigh El Niño influences, which favor more westward and northwestward tracks toward eastern and southern China coasts, against potential late-season shifts in steering patterns or reduced genesis rates after peak months. Model consensus on remaining August–December storms and precise landfall thresholds (Saffir-Simpson intensity and geographic boundaries) creates the narrow spread between eight and greater-than-eight outcomes, with historical analogs showing high interannual variability driven by monsoon trough position and sea-surface temperatures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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