PAGASA forecasts for July 26 point to a 30–33°C range in Metro Manila, with the southwest monsoon (habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms that limit afternoon heating through increased cloud cover and reduced solar radiation. This aligns with typical July climatology of 31–32°C daytime maxima amid high humidity and easterly or southwesterly flow patterns. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on storm timing and intensity, which could shift the official peak by 1–2°C depending on whether clearer intervals allow stronger insolation before convective activity develops. Traders appear to weight the 30–32°C brackets most heavily given the narrow spread in current guidance and historical precedent for monsoon-suppressed extremes, with resolution hinging on the precise maximum recorded at official stations.