Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance, including ECMWF runs, position Madrid's August 10 maximum near 36–37 °C as a ridge of high pressure builds, delivering clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating typical of the city's continental climate. This consensus drives the market's 59.5 % implied probability for 37 °C and 20.5 % for 36 °C, with traders weighting the latest 48-hour forecast updates that show limited model spread. Historical August maxima average around 32–33 °C, but current anomalous warmth has shifted probabilities toward the upper end of the distribution. Minor downside risk remains if nocturnal cooling or thin high cloud develops, while upside potential stays low absent a sharper ridge intensification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 10 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 10 de agosto?
37°C 64%
36°C 22%
38°C 14%
35°C 2%
NUEVO
$16,210 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,210 Vol.
10 ago 2026
31°C o menos
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
22%
37°C
64%
38°C
14%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C o más
<1%
37°C 64%
36°C 22%
38°C 14%
35°C 2%
NUEVO
$16,210 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,210 Vol.
10 ago 2026
31°C o menos
$360 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$294 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$274 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$517 Vol.
2%
36°C
$4,951 Vol.
22%
37°C
$4,259 Vol.
64%
38°C
$3,517 Vol.
14%
39°C
$881 Vol.
1%
40°C
$571 Vol.
<1%
41°C o más
$295 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance, including ECMWF runs, position Madrid's August 10 maximum near 36–37 °C as a ridge of high pressure builds, delivering clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating typical of the city's continental climate. This consensus drives the market's 59.5 % implied probability for 37 °C and 20.5 % for 36 °C, with traders weighting the latest 48-hour forecast updates that show limited model spread. Historical August maxima average around 32–33 °C, but current anomalous warmth has shifted probabilities toward the upper end of the distribution. Minor downside risk remains if nocturnal cooling or thin high cloud develops, while upside potential stays low absent a sharper ridge intensification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$16,210Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance, including ECMWF runs, position Madrid's August 10 maximum near 36–37 °C as a ridge of high pressure builds, delivering clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating typical of the city's continental climate. This consensus drives the market's 59.5 % implied probability for 37 °C and 20.5 % for 36 °C, with traders weighting the latest 48-hour forecast updates that show limited model spread. Historical August maxima average around 32–33 °C, but current anomalous warmth has shifted probabilities toward the upper end of the distribution. Minor downside risk remains if nocturnal cooling or thin high cloud develops, while upside potential stays low absent a sharper ridge intensification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$16,210Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance, including ECMWF runs, position Madrid's August 10 maximum near 36–37 °C as a ridge of high pressure builds, delivering clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating typical of the city's continental climate. This consensus drives the market's 59.5 % implied probability for 37 °C and 20.5 % for 36 °C, with traders weighting the latest 48-hour forecast updates that show limited model spread. Historical August maxima average around 32–33 °C, but current anomalous warmth has shifted probabilities toward the upper end of the distribution. Minor downside risk remains if nocturnal cooling or thin high cloud develops, while upside potential stays low absent a sharper ridge intensification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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