National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, anchoring the market’s strongest implied probability on the 84–85°F bin. This positioning reflects limited warm or cool air advection in current runs, modest diurnal heating, and the absence of significant moisture or frontal influences that could push readings outside the narrow 82–87°F cluster. Traders weigh the next NWS update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer conditions, while historical August averages provide context for why extremes above 88°F or below 82°F remain low-probability outcomes in this stable late-summer pattern.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 4 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 4 de agosto?
84-85°F 52%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 18%
88-89°F 3%
NUEVO
$19,259 Vol.
NUEVO
$19,259 Vol.
4 ago 2026
75°F o menos
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
52%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F o más
<1%
84-85°F 52%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 18%
88-89°F 3%
NUEVO
$19,259 Vol.
NUEVO
$19,259 Vol.
4 ago 2026
75°F o menos
$638 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$539 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$2,331 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$1,602 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$3,154 Vol.
18%
84-85°F
$3,626 Vol.
52%
86-87°F
$2,174 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$2,265 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$1,695 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$593 Vol.
<1%
94°F o más
$643 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, anchoring the market’s strongest implied probability on the 84–85°F bin. This positioning reflects limited warm or cool air advection in current runs, modest diurnal heating, and the absence of significant moisture or frontal influences that could push readings outside the narrow 82–87°F cluster. Traders weigh the next NWS update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer conditions, while historical August averages provide context for why extremes above 88°F or below 82°F remain low-probability outcomes in this stable late-summer pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volumen
$19,259Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, anchoring the market’s strongest implied probability on the 84–85°F bin. This positioning reflects limited warm or cool air advection in current runs, modest diurnal heating, and the absence of significant moisture or frontal influences that could push readings outside the narrow 82–87°F cluster. Traders weigh the next NWS update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer conditions, while historical August averages provide context for why extremes above 88°F or below 82°F remain low-probability outcomes in this stable late-summer pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$19,259Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, anchoring the market’s strongest implied probability on the 84–85°F bin. This positioning reflects limited warm or cool air advection in current runs, modest diurnal heating, and the absence of significant moisture or frontal influences that could push readings outside the narrow 82–87°F cluster. Traders weigh the next NWS update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer conditions, while historical August averages provide context for why extremes above 88°F or below 82°F remain low-probability outcomes in this stable late-summer pattern.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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