Recent National Meteorological Center and international model consensus points to a peak of 36–37°C in Chengdu on August 10, reflecting typical late-summer subtropical high-pressure dominance over the Sichuan Basin with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing strong daytime heating. High humidity (often >70%) and the urban heat-island effect amplify surface temperatures, while any late-day isolated thunderstorms could cap the maximum by a degree or two. The narrow 36°C versus 37°C market split captures remaining ensemble spread in timing of peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing; updated 00Z and 12Z runs tomorrow morning will likely resolve the final range before the official daily high is recorded.