Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the party's nomination in the August 8 primary for Hawaii's 1st congressional district, defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The Oahu-centered district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 or greater partisan voting index and Case's 2024 general election margin exceeding 40 points. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage, historical results, and limited Republican competitiveness. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or a significant national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
HI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,677 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$13,658 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the party's nomination in the August 8 primary for Hawaii's 1st congressional district, defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The Oahu-centered district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 or greater partisan voting index and Case's 2024 general election margin exceeding 40 points. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage, historical results, and limited Republican competitiveness. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or a significant national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$28,336Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the party's nomination in the August 8 primary for Hawaii's 1st congressional district, defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The Oahu-centered district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 or greater partisan voting index and Case's 2024 general election margin exceeding 40 points. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage, historical results, and limited Republican competitiveness. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or a significant national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$28,336Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the party's nomination in the August 8 primary for Hawaii's 1st congressional district, defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The Oahu-centered district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 or greater partisan voting index and Case's 2024 general election margin exceeding 40 points. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage, historical results, and limited Republican competitiveness. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or a significant national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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