Persistent gang violence, chronic funding shortages, and Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé’s May assessment that security conditions rule out an August vote have kept the August 30 first-round date in doubt, sustaining trader balance near 52.5 percent on further delay. April’s postponement of voter and candidate registration, plus ongoing friction between the government and Provisional Electoral Council over the electoral decree and institutional independence, add procedural uncertainty. Counterbalancing these factors are recent steps including party registrations, diaspora voting provisions, and government commitments to finalize the calendar and install elected officials by February 2027. Any near-term security gains, funding releases, or confirmed registration restarts could shift consensus toward the scheduled timeline, while continued violence or institutional gridlock would reinforce delay expectations.