Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have targeted military assets on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports—and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet satellite data through mid-August confirm Iranian control persists with partial terminal reactivation on August 12 after a 25-day shutdown. Intermittent blockades and strikes have curtailed tanker loadings, driving episodic export halts and rerouting attempts while global oil benchmarks incorporate elevated risk premiums tied to Hormuz transit volumes. Iranian revenue remains exposed given heavy reliance on sanctioned crude sales, primarily to China, though no ground operations have altered sovereignty. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC or sanctions updates and any escalation around disputed islands that could affect energy infrastructure valuations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$111,814 Vol.
30 sep 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
2%
$111,814 Vol.
August 31
$39,965 Vol.
1%
September 30
$71,849 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have targeted military assets on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports—and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet satellite data through mid-August confirm Iranian control persists with partial terminal reactivation on August 12 after a 25-day shutdown. Intermittent blockades and strikes have curtailed tanker loadings, driving episodic export halts and rerouting attempts while global oil benchmarks incorporate elevated risk premiums tied to Hormuz transit volumes. Iranian revenue remains exposed given heavy reliance on sanctioned crude sales, primarily to China, though no ground operations have altered sovereignty. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC or sanctions updates and any escalation around disputed islands that could affect energy infrastructure valuations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$111,814Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have targeted military assets on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports—and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet satellite data through mid-August confirm Iranian control persists with partial terminal reactivation on August 12 after a 25-day shutdown. Intermittent blockades and strikes have curtailed tanker loadings, driving episodic export halts and rerouting attempts while global oil benchmarks incorporate elevated risk premiums tied to Hormuz transit volumes. Iranian revenue remains exposed given heavy reliance on sanctioned crude sales, primarily to China, though no ground operations have altered sovereignty. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC or sanctions updates and any escalation around disputed islands that could affect energy infrastructure valuations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$111,814Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have targeted military assets on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports—and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet satellite data through mid-August confirm Iranian control persists with partial terminal reactivation on August 12 after a 25-day shutdown. Intermittent blockades and strikes have curtailed tanker loadings, driving episodic export halts and rerouting attempts while global oil benchmarks incorporate elevated risk premiums tied to Hormuz transit volumes. Iranian revenue remains exposed given heavy reliance on sanctioned crude sales, primarily to China, though no ground operations have altered sovereignty. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC or sanctions updates and any escalation around disputed islands that could affect energy infrastructure valuations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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